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Finding the most probable explanation for observed variables in a Bayesian network is a notoriously intractable problem, particularly if there are hidden variables in the network. In this paper we examine the complexity of a related…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2018-12-12 Johan Kwisthout

While the study of a single network is well-established, technological advances now allow for the collection of multiple networks with relative ease. Increasingly, anywhere from several to thousands of networks can be created from brain…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-14 Nathaniel Josephs , Lizhen Lin , Steven Rosenberg , Eric D. Kolaczyk

Process mining is a technique that performs an automatic analysis of business processes from a log of events with the promise of understanding how processes are executed in an organisation. Several models have been proposed to address this…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-26 Catarina Moreira

Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Matthew Marsh , Benoît Chachuat , Antonio del Rio Chanona

The classical approach to inverse problems is based on the optimization of a misfit function. Despite its computational appeal, such an approach suffers from many shortcomings, e.g., non-uniqueness of solutions, modeling prior knowledge,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-22 Panagiotis Tsilifis , Ilias Bilionis , Ioannis Katsounaros , Nicholas Zabaras

Although widely used in practice, the behavior and accuracy of the popular module identification technique called modularity maximization is not well understood in practical contexts. Here, we present a broad characterization of its…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-04-19 Benjamin H. Good , Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye , Aaron Clauset

We study the problem of selecting limited features to observe such that models trained on them can perform well simultaneously across multiple subpopulations. This problem has applications in settings where collecting each feature is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Maitreyi Swaroop , Tamar Krishnamurti , Bryan Wilder

Based on cluster de-synchronization properties of phase oscillators, we introduce an efficient method for the detection and identification of modules in complex networks. The performance of the algorithm is tested on computer generated and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-26 S. Boccaletti , M. Ivanchenko , V. Latora , A. Pluchino , A. Rapisarda

Bayesian neural network posterior distributions have a great number of modes that correspond to the same network function. The abundance of such modes can make it difficult for approximate inference methods to do their job. Recent work has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Tommy Rochussen

Purpose: Machine learning is broadly used for clinical data analysis. Before training a model, a machine learning algorithm must be selected. Also, the values of one or more model parameters termed hyper-parameters must be set. Selecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-10 Xueqiang Zeng , Gang Luo

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Erdong Guo , David Draper

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

Model-based approaches bear great promise for decision making of agents interacting with the physical world. In the context of spatial environments, different types of problems such as localisation, mapping, navigation or autonomous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-21 Atanas Mirchev , Baris Kayalibay , Maximilian Soelch , Patrick van der Smagt , Justin Bayer

A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Tshilidzi Marwala

For many optimization problems it is possible to define a distance metric between problem variables that correlates with the likelihood and strength of interactions between the variables. For example, one may define a metric so that the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2012-01-12 Martin Pelikan , Mark W. Hauschild

This paper proposes the incremental Bayesian optimization algorithm (iBOA), which modifies standard BOA by removing the population of solutions and using incremental updates of the Bayesian network. iBOA is shown to be able to learn and…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2008-07-30 Martin Pelikan , Kumara Sastry , David E. Goldberg

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 David T. Frazier , Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , Bonsoo Koo

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Illia Oleksiienko , Dat Thanh Tran , Alexandros Iosifidis

We develop a new framework for designing online policies given access to an oracle providing statistical information about an offline benchmark. Having access to such prediction oracles enables simple and natural Bayesian selection…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Alberto Vera , Siddhartha Banerjee