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Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
We describe a new framework of a sublinear expectation space and the related notions and results of distributions, independence. A new notion of G-distributions is introduced which generalizes our G-normal-distribution in the sense that…
I argue that regularizing terms in standard regression methods not only help against overfitting finite data, but sometimes also yield better causal models in the infinite sample regime. I first consider a multi-dimensional variable…
The fluctuation theorem characterizes the distribution of the dissipation in nonequilibrium systems and proves that the average dissipation will be positive. For a large system with no external source of fluctuation, fluctuations in…
The normal distribution plays a central role in information theory - it is at the same time the best-case signal and worst-case noise distribution, has the greatest representational capacity of any distribution, and offers an equivalence…
By well known results of probability theory, any sequence of random variables with bounded second moments has a subsequence satisfying the central limit theorem and the law of the iterated logarithm in a randomized form. In this paper we…
A probability model exhibits instability if small changes in a data outcome result in large, and often unanticipated, changes in probability. This instability is a property of the probability model, given by a distributional form and a…
We consider a family of multivariate autoregressive stochastic sequences that restart when hit a neighbourhood of the origin, and study their distributional limits when the autoregressive coefficient tends to one, the noise scaling…
The Central Limit Theorem provides a foundation for inferential statistics and hypothesis testing. It describes how standardized statistics behave under repeated sampling from large populations. However, if the size of the sample (n)…
A non-classical formulation of the central limit theorem is given for sequences of independent random variables with finite second moments. Singular sequences whose members all have a degenerate or normal distribution are excluded from…
The theory of transient growth describes how linear mechanisms can cause temporary amplification of disturbances even when the linearized system is asymptotically stable as defined by its eigenvalues. This growth is traditionally quantified…
Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliar aspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to determine who is normal, and fluctuations above or below a…
Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…
We make progress towards an analytical understanding of the regime of validity of perturbation theory for large scale structures and the nature of some non-perturbative corrections. We restrict ourselves to 1D gravitational collapse, for…
Any measurement is intended to provide information on a system, namely knowledge about its state. However, we learn from quantum theory that it is generally impossible to extract information without disturbing the state of the system or its…
Two-sample inference for the difference of population means typically relies upon a Central Limit Theorem approximation. When data are drawn from a Negative Binomial distribution, previous work of Shilane et al. (2010) showed that a Normal…
We study conditions under which treatment effect estimators constructed under the no-interference assumption in randomized experiments are asymptotically normal in the presence of interference. We prove that the standard Horvitz-Thompson…
The leading term in the normal approximation to the distribution of Student's t statistic is derived in a general setting, with the sole assumption being that the sampled distribution is in the domain of attraction of a normal law. The form…
The central limit theorem ensures that a sum of random variables tends to a Gaussian distribution as their total number tends to infinity. However, for a class of positive random variables, we find that the sum tends faster to a log-normal…
The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity and cultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in…