Related papers: On some probabilistic properties of periodic GARCH…
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…
Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) arises in modeling of financial time series. FIGARCH is essentially governed by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations ${u_t}$ =…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
For the multivariate COGARCH process, we obtain explicit expressions for the second-order structure of the "squared returns" process observed on an equidistant grid. Based on this, we present a generalized method of moments estimator for…
Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…
In this paper we study the ergodicity and the related semigroup property for a class of symmetric Markov jump processes associated with time changed symmetric $\alpha$-stable processes. For this purpose, explicit and sharp criteria for…
HYGARCH process is the commonly used long memory process in modeling the long-rang dependence in volatility. Financial time series are characterized by transition between phases of different volatility levels. The smooth transition HYGARCH…
The extremal characteristics of random structures, including trees, graphs, and networks, are discussed. A statistical physics approach is employed in which extremal properties are obtained through suitably defined rate equations. A variety…
We study random graphs with latent geometric structure, where the probability of each edge depends on the underlying random positions corresponding to the two endpoints. We focus on the setting where this conditional probability is a…
In the paper we consider some piecewise deterministic Markov process whose continuous component evolves according to semiflows, which are switched at the jump times of a Poisson process. The associated Markov chain describes the states of…
We study the existence and properties of stationary solution of ARCH-type equation $r_t= \zeta_t \sigma_t$, where $\zeta_t$ are standardized i.i.d. r.v.'s and the conditional variance satisfies an AR(1) equation $\sigma^2_t = Q^2\big(a +…
A particle system is a family of i.i.d. stochastic processes with values translated by Poisson points. We obtain conditions that ensure the stationarity in time of the particle system in R^d and in some cases provide a full characterisation…
This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including ARMA models with asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) errors. The classical mean-variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location-scale models so that…
Stochastic processes with multiplicative noise have been studied independently in several different contexts over the past decades. We focus on the regime, found for a generic set of control parameters, in which stochastic processes with…
In this paper we study the simple semi-L\'evy driven continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (SS-COGARCH) process. The statistical properties of this process are characterized. This process has the potential…
When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a…
Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series…
In the paper we study the models of time-changed Poisson and Skellam-type processes, where the role of time is played by compound Poisson-Gamma subordinators and their inverse (or first passage time) processes. We obtain explicitly the…
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…