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Exponential averages that appear in integral fluctuation theorems can be recast as a sum over moments of thermodynamic observables. We use two examples to show that such moment series can exhibit non-uniform convergence in certain singular…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-05-31 Hila Katznelson , Saar Rahav

Our paper illustrates how the theory of Lie systems allows recovering known results and provide new examples of piecewise deterministic processes with phase-type jumps for which the corresponding first-time passage problems may be solved…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-07 Florin Avram , José F. Cariñena , Javier de Lucas

First-order stochastic methods are the state-of-the-art in large-scale machine learning optimization owing to efficient per-iteration complexity. Second-order methods, while able to provide faster convergence, have been much less explored…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-01 Naman Agarwal , Brian Bullins , Elad Hazan

We study the persistence probability for some discrete-time, time-reversible processes. In particular, we deduce the persistence exponent in a number of examples: first, we deal with random walks in random sceneries (RWRS) in any dimension…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-25 Frank Aurzada , Nadine Guillotin-Plantard

We develop a method based on martingales to study first-passage problems of time-additive observables exiting an interval of finite width in a Markov process. In the limit that the interval width is large, we derive generic expressions for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-05-14 Izaak Neri

The purpose of this paper is to investigate moderate deviations for the Durbin-Watson statistic associated with the stable first-order autoregressive process where the driven noise is also given by a first-order autoregressive process. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-18 S. Valère Bitseki Penda , Hacène Djellout , Frédéric Proïa

Certain deterministic non-linear systems may show chaotic behaviour. Time series derived from such systems seem stochastic when analyzed with linear techniques. However, uncovering the deterministic structure is important because it allows…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 Dimitris Kugiumtzis , Bjoern Lillekjendlie , Nils Christophersen

We investigate scaling phenomena at first-order quantum transitions, when the boundary conditions favor one of the two phases. We show that the corresponding finite-size scaling behavior, arising from the interplay between the driving…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-21 Andrea Pelissetto , Davide Rossini , Ettore Vicari

We consider the boundary crossing problem for time-homogeneous diffusions and general curvilinear boundaries. Bounds are derived for the approximation error of the one-sided (upper) boundary crossing probability when replacing the original…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-08-28 A. N. Downes , K. Borovkov

We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Ron Doney , Claudia Klüppelberg , Ross Maller

Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-10 Hao Meng , Fei Ren , Gao-Feng Gu , Xiong Xiong , Yong-Jie Zhang , Wei-Xing Zhou , Wei Zhang

The stochastic properties of a Langevin-type Markov process can be extracted from a given time series by a Markov analysis. Also processes that obey a stochastically forced second order differential equation can be analyzed this way by…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-12-09 Bernd Lehle , Joachim Peinke

Reconstructing a hypothetical recurrence equation from the first terms of an infinite sequence is a classical and well-known technique in experimental mathematics. We propose a variation of this technique which can succeed with fewer input…

Symbolic Computation · Computer Science 2022-07-11 Manuel Kauers , Christoph Koutschan

Linear Response theory aims to predict how added forcing alters the statistical properties of an unforced system. These kinds of questions have been studied predominantly for autonomous dynamical systems, yet many systems in the physical,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Stefano Galatolo , Valerio Lucarini

We provide a novel computer-assisted technique for systematically analyzing first-order methods for optimization. In contrast with previous works, the approach is particularly suited for handling sublinear convergence rates and stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Adrien Taylor , Francis Bach

Chaotic behavior can be produced from difference equations with unstable fixed points. Difference equations can be used for algorithms to control the chaotic behavior by perturbing a system parameter using feedback based on the first…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-01-14 Edward H. Hellen , J. Keith Thomas

Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Svend-Erik Graversen , Jan Pedersen

We derive strong mixing conditions for many existing discrete-valued time series models that include exogenous covariates in the dynamic. Our main contribution is to study how a mixing condition on the covariate process transfers to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-07 Lionel Truquet

The infinite servers queue with Poisson arrivals state transient probabilities, considering the time origin at the beginning of a busy period, mean and variance monotony as time functions is studied. These studies, for which results it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-29 Manuel Alberto M. Ferreira

Complex interactions leading to phase transitions continue to hold a due interest in the scientific community. We charactersize a phase transition in a coupled oscillators model where interactions are not local in nature. At a first order…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2025-08-26 Ayushi suman , Sarika Jalan