Related papers: Seismic precursory patterns before a cliff collaps…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
The distribution of the magnitudes of damage avalanches during a failure process typically follows a power law. When these avalanches are recorded close to the point at which the system fails catastrophically, we find that the power law has…
Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, and ultimately an accelerating regime leading to catastrophic…
Complex systems, when poised near a critical point of a phase transition between order and disorder, exhibit a dynamics comprising a scale-free mixture of order and disorder which is universal, i.e. system-independent (1-5). It allows…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
Potential energy stored during the inter-seismic period by tectonic loading around faults is released during earthquakes as radiated energy, heat and fracture energy. The latter is of first importance since it controls the nucleation,…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
Crack growth is the basic mechanism leading to the failure of brittle materials. Engineering addresses this problem within the framework of continuum mechanics, which links deterministically the crack motion to the applied loading. Such an…
Soft solids like colloidal glasses exhibit a yield stress, above which the system starts to flow. The microscopic analogon in microrheology is the delocalization of a tracer particle subject to an external force exceeding a threshold value,…
In any domain involving some stressed solids, that is, from seismology to general engineering, the strength of matter is a paramount feature to understand. We here discuss the ability of a simple thermally activated sub-critical model, that…
The deformation of rocks is associated with microcracks nucleation and propagation, i.e. damage. The accumulation of damage and its spatial localization lead to the creation of a macroscale discontinuity, so-called "fault" in geological…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
Cracks, the major vehicle for material failure, tend to accelerate to high velocities in brittle materials. In three-dimensions, cracks generically undergo a micro-branching instability at about 40% of their sonic limiting velocity. Recent…
Using 9-sets of different laboratory earthquake tests, we examined the nature of cracking under true triaxial stress conditions in the lithosphere . We found that 3D stress state can induce oblique nucleation of many fractures, forming…
A phenomenological systems approach for identifying potential precursors in multiple signals of different types for the same local seismically active region is proposed based on the assumption that a large earthquake may be preceded by a…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
The stability of stratified flows at locations in the Clyde, Irish and Celtic Seas on the UK Continental Shelf is examined. Flows are averaged over periods of 12-30 min in each hour, corresponding to the times taken to obtain reliable…
We report the onset of elastic turbulence in a two-dimensional Taylor-Couette geometry using numerical solutions of the Oldroyd-B model, also performed at high Weissenberg numbers with the program OpenFOAM. Beyond a critical Weissenberg…
We investigate the relevance of {\sl self-organized criticality (SOC)} models in previously published empirical datasets, which includes statistical observations in astrophysics, geophysics, biophysics, sociophysics, and informatics. We…