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In this paper, we study the Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) conditioning on the number of edges. In subcritical region of model parameters, we prove a conditional Central Limit Theorem (CLT) with explicit mean and variance for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Xiao Fang , Song-Hao Liu , Zhonggen Su , Xiaolin Wang

Suppose $B_i:= B(p,r_i)$ are nested balls of radius $r_i$ about a point $p$ in a dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$. The question of whether $T^i x\in B_i$ infinitely often (i. o.) for $\mu$ a.e.\ $x$ is often called the shrinking target problem.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-16 Nicolai Haydn , Matthew Nicol , Sandro Vaienti , Licheng Zhang

We study sample covariance matrices arising from multi-level components of variance. Thus, let $ B_n=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{j=1}^NT_{j}^{1/2}x_jx_j^TT_{j}^{1/2}$, where $x_j\in R^n$ are i.i.d. standard Gaussian, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-07 Ran Xie , Iain Johnstone

Let $\{X_k\}_{k \in \mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary Gaussian process with values in a separable Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_1$, and let $G:\mathcal{H}_1 \to \mathcal{H}_2$ be an operator acting on $X_k$. Under suitable conditions on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Marie-Christine Düker , Pavlos Zoubouloglou

We prove quenched versions of (i) a large deviations principle (LDP), (ii) a central limit theorem (CLT), and (iii) a local central limit theorem (LCLT) for non-autonomous dynamical systems. A key advance is the extension of the spectral…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Davor Dragicevic , Gary Froyland , Cecilia Gonzalez-Tokman , Sandro Vaienti

In this paper, we introduce the $\sigma$-antithetic multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator for a multi-dimensional diffusion which is an extended version of the original antithetic MLMC one introduced by Giles and Szpruch \cite{a}. Our aim…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-26 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Ahmed Kebaier , Thi Bao Tram Ngo

We give a closer look at the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) behavior in quasi-stationary states of the Hamiltonian Mean Field model, a paradigmatic one for long-range-interacting classical many-body systems. We present new calculations which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-03-17 A. Pluchino , A. Rapisarda , C. Tsallis

Randomized block factorial experiments are widely used in industrial engineering, clinical trials, and social science. Researchers often use a linear model and analysis of covariance to analyze experimental results; however, limited studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-04 Hanzhong Liu , Jiyang Ren , Yuehan Yang

This work considers the asymptotic behavior of the distance between two sample covariance matrices (SCM). A general result is provided for a class of functionals that can be expressed as sums of traces of functions that are separately…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-25 Roberto Pereira , Xavier Mestre , David Gregoratti

We prove a variant of the central limit theorem (CLT) for a sequence of i.i.d. random variables $\xi_j$, perturbed by a stochastic sequence of linear transformations $A_j$, representing the model uncertainty. The limit, corresponding to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-20 Dmitry B. Rokhlin

In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-26 Emil A. Stoltenberg , Per A. Mykland , Lan Zhang

We study dynamical systems arising as time-dependent compositions of Pomeau-Manneville-type intermittent maps. We establish central limit theorems for appropriately scaled and centered Birkhoff-like partial sums, with estimates on the rate…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Olli Hella , Juho Leppänen

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Fabian Mies

In this article we prove a new central limit theorem (CLT) for coupled particle filters (CPFs). CPFs are used for the sequential estimation of the difference of expectations w.r.t. filters which are in some sense close. Examples include the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Ajay Jasra , Fangyuan Yu

There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Yichen Zhou , Stephen Tu

We study the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) in the so-called mixed (anisotropic) Lebesgue-Riesz spaces and tail behavior of normed sums of centered random independent variables (vectors) with values in these spaces.

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-27 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) produces a correlated sample for estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop so that we have good estimates of the desired quantities?…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-02 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

We consider two classical ensembles of the random matrix theory: the Wigner matrices and sample covariance matrices, and prove Central Limit Theorem for linear eigenvalue statistics under rather weak (comparing with results known before)…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2011-01-18 Mariya Shcherbina

We consider "randomized" statistics constructed by using a finite number of observations a random field at randomly chosen points. We generalize the invariance principle (the functional CLT), the Glivenko--Cantelli theorem, the theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-19 Youri Davydov , Arkady Tempelman

We prove a central limit theorem for the linear statistics of one-dimensional log-gases, or $\beta$-ensembles. We use a method based on a change of variables which allows to treat fairly general situations, including multi-cut and, for the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2018-02-08 Florent Bekerman , Thomas Leblé , Sylvia Serfaty
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