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In this paper, we consider the problem of numerical investigation of the counting statistics for a class of one-dimensional systems. Importance sampling, the cornerstone technique usually implemented for such problems, critically hinges on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-12 Ivan N. Burenev , Satya N. Majumdar , Alberto Rosso

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-12-11 Heng Lian

In this paper, we propose improved estimation method for logistic regression based on subsamples taken according the optimal subsampling probabilities developed in Wang et al. 2018 Both asymptotic results and numerical results show that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-24 HaiYing Wang

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-11 Jianhua Xian , Ziqi Wang

Nonuniform subsampling methods are effective to reduce computational burden and maintain estimation efficiency for massive data. Existing methods mostly focus on subsampling with replacement due to its high computational efficiency. If the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Jun Yu , HaiYing Wang , Mingyao Ai , Huiming Zhang

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-16 Badr-Eddine Cherief-Abdellatif , Randal Douc , Arnaud Doucet , Hugo Marival

The latent class model is a powerful unsupervised clustering algorithm for categorical data. Many statistics exist to test the fit of the latent class model. However, traditional methods to evaluate those fit statistics are not always…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Geert H. van Kollenburg , Joris Mulder , Jeroen K. Vermunt

Latent position models are widely used for the analysis of networks in a variety of research fields. In fact, these models possess a number of desirable theoretical properties, and are particularly easy to interpret. However, statistical…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-08 Riccardo Rastelli , Florian Maire , Nial Friel

The bootstrap is a widely used procedure for statistical inference because of its simplicity and attractive statistical properties. However, the vanilla version of bootstrap is no longer feasible computationally for many modern massive…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-16 Yingying Ma , Chenlei Leng , Hansheng Wang

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Boualem Djehiche , Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Luis E. Ortiz , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-26 M. -N. Tran , C. Strickland , M. K. Pitt , R. Kohn

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

We propose an unconstrained stochastic approximation method of finding the optimal measure change (in an a priori parametric family) for Monte Carlo simulations. We consider different parametric families based on the Girsanov theorem and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

In solving simulation-based stochastic root-finding or optimization problems that involve rare events, such as in extreme quantile estimation, running crude Monte Carlo can be prohibitively inefficient. To address this issue, importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-23 Shengyi He , Guangxin Jiang , Henry Lam , Michael C. Fu

An algorithm is described that enables efficient deterministic approximate computation of the bootstrap distribution for any linear bootstrap method $T_n^*$, alleviating the need for repeated resampling from observations (resp.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-10 Thomas Pitschel