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We consider plain vanilla European options written on an underlying asset that follows a continuous time semi-Markov multiplicative process. We derive a formula and a renewal type equation for the martingale option price. In the case in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-06 Enrico Scalas , Bruno Toaldo

We solve the problem of super-hedging European or Asian options for discrete-time financial market models where executable prices are uncertain. The risky asset prices are not described by single-valued processes but measurable selections…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-16 Meriam El Mansour , Emmanuel Lepinette

The paper [12] examines a concept of equilibrium policies instead of optimal controls in stochastic optimization to analyze a mean-variance portfolio selection problem. We follow the same approach in order to investigate the Merton…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-23 I. Alia , F. Chighoub , N. Khelfallah , J. Vives

We propose a method for extending a given asset pricing formula to account for two additional sources of risk: the risk associated with future changes in market--calibrated parameters and the remaining risk associated with idiosyncratic…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 T. R. Hurd

Given the marginal distribution information of the underlying asset price at two future times $T_1$ and $T_2$, we consider the problem of determining a model-free upper bound on the price of a class of American options that must be…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Tongseok Lim

We consider the pricing and hedging of exotic options in a model-independent set-up using \emph{shortfall risk and quantiles}. We assume that the marginal distributions at certain times are given. This is tantamount to calibrating the model…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-10 Erhan Bayraktar , Zhou Zhou

We propose a new method for finding statistical arbitrages that can contain more assets than just the traditional pair. We formulate the problem as seeking a portfolio with the highest volatility, subject to its price remaining in a band…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-14 Kasper Johansson , Thomas Schmelzer , Stephen Boyd

The binary information collects all those events that may or may not occur. With this kind of variables, a large amount of information can be captured, in particular, about financial assets and their future trends. In our paper, we assume…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-03 Bernardo D'Auria , José A. Salmerón

We study a quadratic hedging problem for a sequence of contingent claims with random weights in discrete time. We obtain the optimal hedging strategy explicitly in a recursive representation, without imposing the non-degeneracy (ND)…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-07 Jun Deng , Bin Zou

In this paper, we focus on the estimation of historical volatility of asset prices from high-frequency data. Stochastic volatility models pose a major statistical challenge: since in reality historical volatility is not observable, its…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-27 Camilla Damian , Rüdiger Frey

We present a numerically efficient approach for learning a risk-neutral measure for paths of simulated spot and option prices up to a finite horizon under convex transaction costs and convex trading constraints. This approach can then be…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-15 Hans Buehler , Phillip Murray , Mikko S. Pakkanen , Ben Wood

In the context of a general semimartingale model of a complete market, we aim at answering the following question: How much is an investor willing to pay for learning some inside information that allows to achieve arbitrage? If such a value…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-28 Huy N. Chau , Andrea Cosso , Claudio Fontana

Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Rui Vilela Mendes , Maria Joao Oliveira

In practice there are temporary arbitrage opportunities arising from the fact that prices for a given asset at different stock exchanges are not instantaneously the same. We will show that even in such an environment there exists a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Frederik Herzberg

The purpose of this paper is two-fold: We extend the well-known relation between optimal stopping and randomized stopping of a given stochastic process to a situation where the available information flow is a filtration with no a priori…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Nacira Agram , Sven Haadem , Bernt Oksendal , Frank Proske

In this paper, we prove the global risk optimality of the hedging strategy of contingent claim, which is explicitly (or called semi-explicitly) constructed for an incomplete financial market with external risk factors of non-Gaussian…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-28 Wanyang Dai

We consider the Merton problem of optimizing expected power utility of terminal wealth in the case of an unobservable Markov-modulated drift. What makes the model special is that the agent is allowed to purchase costly expert opinions of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-19 Christoph Knochenhauer , Alexander Merkel , Yufei Zhang

We consider the problem of numerically approximating the solutions to a partial differential equation (PDE) when there is insufficient information to determine a unique solution. Our main example is the Poisson boundary value problem, when…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-21 Peter Binev , Andrea Bonito , Albert Cohen , Wolfgang Dahmen , Ronald DeVore , Guergana Petrova

This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Dean P. Foster , Robert A. Stine

In an equity market model with "Knightian" uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, we characterize in several ways the highest return relative to the market that can be achieved using nonanticipative…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-15 Daniel Fernholz , Ioannis Karatzas