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Nonparametric mixture models based on the Pitman-Yor process represent a flexible tool for density estimation and clustering. Natural generalization of the popular class of Dirichlet process mixture models, they allow for more robust…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-26 Antonio Canale , Riccardo Corradin , Bernardo Nipoti

This paper proposes niching importance sampling, a framework that combines concepts from reliability analysis, e.g. Markov chains, importance sampling, and relative cross entropy minimisation, with niching techniques from evolutionary…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-09 Hugh J. Kinnear , F. A. DiazDelaO

Big data streams are possibly one of the most essential underlying notions. However, data streams are often challenging to handle owing to their rapid pace and limited information lifetime. It is difficult to collect and communicate stream…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Christos Karras , Aristeidis Karras , Spyros Sioutas

Network flows often exhibit a hierarchical tree-like structure that can be attributed to the minimisation of dissipation. The common feature of such systems is a single source and multiple sinks (or vice versa). In contrast, here we study…

Tissues and Organs · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-27 Julius B. Kirkegaard , Kim Sneppen

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo methodology for the approximation of intractable integrals, very often involving a target probability density function. The performance of IS heavily depends on the appropriate selection of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Víctor Elvira , Emilie Chouzenoux , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Luca Martino

Network reliability is the probability that a dynamical system composed of discrete elements interacting on a network will be found in a configuration that satisfies a particular property. We introduce a new reliability property, Ising…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-11-23 Yihui Ren , Stephen Eubank , Madhurima Nath

The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Felipe Uribe , Iason Papaioannou , Youssef M. Marzouk , Daniel Straub

Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

Information-theoretic Bayesian optimization techniques have become popular for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions due to their non-myopic qualities. Entropy Search and Predictive Entropy Search both consider the entropy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Carl Hvarfner , Frank Hutter , Luigi Nardi

Precision achieved by stochastic sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks typically deteriorates in face of extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose the Evidence Pre-propagation Importance Sampling algorithm…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Changhe Yuan , Marek J. Druzdzel

For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-12-06 Peter Werner , Alexander K. Hartmann

Exploring statistics of locally connected subgraph patterns (also known as network motifs) has helped researchers better understand the structure and function of biological and online social networks (OSNs). Nowadays the massive size of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-03-28 Pinghui Wang , John C. S. Lui , Bruno Ribeiro , Don Towsley , Junzhou Zhao , Xiaohong Guan

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-30 Karthyek R. A. Murthy , Sandeep Juneja , Jose Blanchet

We propose a novel alternative approach to our previous work (Ben Hammouda et al., 2023) to improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) estimators for rare event probabilities for stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In the same spirit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Importance sampling is often used in machine learning when training and testing data come from different distributions. In this paper we propose a new variant of importance sampling that can reduce the variance of importance sampling-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

We study predictive probability inference in classification tasks using random forests under class imbalance. We focus on two simplified variants of Breiman's algorithm, namely subsampling Infinite Random Forests (IRFs) and under-sampling…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-23 Moria Mayala , Olivier Wintenberger , Charles Tillier , Clément Dombry

Although stochastic models driven by latent Markov processes are widely used, the classical importance sampling methods based on the exponential tilting for these models suffers from the difficulties in computing the eigenvalues and…

Computation · Statistics 2025-10-14 Cheng-Der Fuh , Yanwei Jia , Steven Kou

Sampling rare events in metastable dynamical systems is often a computationally expensive task and one needs to resort to enhanced sampling methods such as importance sampling. Since we can formulate the problem of finding optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-05 Enric Ribera Borrell , Jannes Quer , Lorenz Richter , Christof Schütte