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Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2011-07-19 Ilya Narsky

Although there is an extensive literature on the maxima of Gaussian processes, there are relatively few non-asymptotic bounds on their lower-tail probabilities. The aim of this paper is to develop such a bound, while also allowing for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Miles E. Lopes , Junwen Yao

We prove new lower bounds for the upper tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. Unlike many existing bounds, our results are not asymptotic, but supply strong information when one is only a little into the upper tail. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-25 Adam J. Harper

This work prepares new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, Hermitian tensors. These probability bounds characterize large-deviation behavior of the extreme eigenvalue of the sums of random tensors. We extend Lapalace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shih Yu Chang

The aims of this paper are twofold. Firstly, we derive some probabilistic representation for the constant which appears in the one-dimensional case of Kesten's renewal theorem. Secondly, we estimate the tail of some related random variable…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-04-10 Nathanaël Enriquez , Christophe Sabot , Olivier Zindy

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We give three disjoint groups of sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Dariusz Buraczewski , Piotr Dyszewski , Alexander Iksanov , Alexander Marynych

Poisson approximation using Stein's method has been extensively studied in the literature. The main focus has been on bounding the total variation distance. This paper is a first attempt on moderate deviations in Poisson approximation for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-21 Louis H. Y. Chen , Xiao Fang , Qi-Man Shao

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Sohail Bahmani

The rate of uniform convergence in extreme value statistics is non-universal and can be arbitrarily slow. Further, the relative error can be unbounded in the tail of the approximation, leading to difficulty in extrapolating the extreme…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-05 Ashivni Shekhawat

In this paper we revisited the classical problem of max-sum equivalence of randomly weighted sums in two dimensions. In opposite to the most papers in literature, we consider that there exists some interdependence between the primary random…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Dimitrios G. Konstantinides , Charalampos D. Passalidis

Our focus is on the design and analysis of efficient Monte Carlo methods for computing tail probabilities for the suprema of Gaussian random fields, along with conditional expectations of functionals of the fields given the existence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-09 Robert J. Adler , Jose H. Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

Let $X_{1,n}\le\cdots\le X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics of $n$ independent random variables with a common distribution function $F$ having right heavy tail with tail index $\gamma$. Given known constants $d_{i,n}$, $1\le i\le n$, consider…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Lillian Achola Oluoch , László Viharos

In this paper, the local asymptotic estimation for the supremum of a random walk and its applications are presented. The summands of the random walk have common long-tailed and generalized strong subexponential distribution. This…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Yuebao Wang , Hui Xu , Dongya Cheng , Changjun Yu

We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Mathew D. Penrose , J. E. Yukich

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

Applications · Statistics 2011-09-27 Marta Ferreira

This paper gives a new representation of Pickands' constants, which arise in the study of extremes for a variety of Gaussian processes. Using this representation, we resolve the long-standing problem of devising a reliable algorithm for…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 A. B. Dieker , B. Yakir

In this note a two sided bound on the tail probability of sums of independent, and either symmetric or nonnegative, random variables is obtained. We utilize a recent result by Lata{\l}a on bounds on moments of such sums. We also give a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paweł Hitczenko , Stephen Montgomery-Smith

We provide a new extension of Breiman's Theorem on computing tail probabilities of a product of random variables to a multivariate setting. In particular, we give a complete characterization of regular variation on cones in $[0,\infty)^d$…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Claudia Klüppelberg

The goal of this paper is to investigate the tools of extreme value theory originally introduced for discrete time stationary stochastic processes (time series), namely the tail process and the tail measure, in the framework of continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Philippe Soulier

Random fields play a central role in the analysis of spatially correlated data and, as a result, have a significant impact on a broad array of scientific applications. This paper studies the cepstral random field model, providing recursive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-17 Tucker S. McElroy , Scott H. Holan