English
Related papers

Related papers: Predicting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Av…

200 papers

In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings…

We introduce a mathematical formulation of feature-informed data assimilation (FIDA). In FIDA, the information about feature events, such as shock waves, level curves, wavefronts and peak value, in dynamical systems are used for the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-02 Wei Kang , Daniel M. Tartakovsky , Apoorv Srivastava

Data Assimilation is the process in which we improve the representation of the state of a physical system by combining information coming from a numerical model, real-world observations, and some prior modelling. It is widely used to model…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Victor Trappler , Arthur Vidard

Solar flares represent one of the most intense forms of solar activity. Understanding the evolution of physical parameters in the solar atmosphere during flares is key to studying flare mechanisms and improving prediction capabilities.…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-27 W. Xu , Q. Hao , Z. Zheng , J. Hong , J. Hu , Y. Qiu , C. Li , M. D. Ding , C. Fang

Uncertainties of snowpack models and of their meteorological forcings limit their use by avalanche hazard forecasters, or for glaciological and hydrological studies. The spatialized simulations currently available for avalanche hazard…

Satellite observation operators play an essential role in atmospheric data assimilation by translating model state variables into observation space. Previous work has shown that deep-learned emulators can effectively predict the outputs of…

We attempt to forecast M-and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-01-09 Monica G. Bobra , Sebastien Couvidat

Snow avalanches present significant risks to human life and infrastructure, particularly in mountainous regions, making effective monitoring crucial. Traditional monitoring methods, such as field observations, are limited by accessibility,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Filippo Maria Bianchi , Jakob Grahn

Domain Decomposition of 4D-VAR Data Assimilation (DD-4DVAR) is made up of decomposition of the spate-time domain, solution of reduced forecast model and minimization of local 4D-VAR functionals. Relying on the existing software…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-02-04 L. D'Amore , R. Cacciapuoti , A. Moore

For many years, strongly and weakly constrained approaches were the only options to deal with errors in four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar), with the aim of balancing the degrees of freedom and model constraints. Strong…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-21 Xiangjun Tian , Hongqin Zhang , Zhe Jin , Min Zhao , Yilong Wang , Yinhai Luo , Ziqing Zhang , Yanyan Tan

Balanced truncation is a well-established model order reduction method which has been applied to a variety of problems. Recently, a connection between linear Gaussian Bayesian inference problems and the system-theoretic concept of balanced…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-04 Josie König , Melina A. Freitag

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-16 Amit N. Subrahmanya , Vishwas Rao , Arvind K. Saibaba

The thermal management of cryogenic storage tanks requires advanced control strategies to minimize the boil-off losses produced by heat leakages and sloshing-enhanced heat and mass transfer. This work presents a data-assimilation approach…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-02 Pedro Afonso Marques , Samuel Ahizi , Miguel Alfonso Mendez

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Hao Wang , Jindong Han , Wei Fan , Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-29 Jing-An Sun , Hang Fan , Junchao Gong , Ben Fei , Kun Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Wanghan Xu , Li Yan , Pierre Gentine , Lei Bai

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Xiaoze Xu , Xiuyu Sun , Wei Han , Xiaohui Zhong , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Solar flares are among the most severe space weather phenomena, and they have the capacity to generate radiation storms and radio disruptions on Earth. The accurate prediction of solar flare events remains a significant challenge, requiring…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-31 Vysakh P. A. , Prateek Mayank

We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 Alberto Carrassi , Michael Ghil , Anna Trevisan , Francesco Uboldi