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Related papers: Updating Probabilities with Data and Moments

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Many stochastic continuous-state dynamical systems can be modeled as probabilistic programs with nonlinear non-polynomial updates in non-nested loops. We present two methods, one approximate and one exact, to automatically compute, without…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-03 Andrey Kofnov , Marcel Moosbrugger , Miroslav Stankovič , Ezio Bartocci , Efstathia Bura

We show that Skilling's method of induction leads to a unique general theory of inductive inference, the method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME). The main tool for updating probabilities is the logarithmic relative entropy; other entropies…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Ariel Caticha , Adom Giffin

This article expands the framework of Bayesian inference and provides direct probabilistic methods for approaching inference tasks that are typically handled with information theory. We treat Bayesian probability updating as a random…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-11-20 Kevin Vanslette

The phenomenon of entropy concentration provides strong support for the maximum entropy method, MaxEnt, for inferring a probability vector from information in the form of constraints. Here we extend this phenomenon, in a discrete setting,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Kostas N. Oikonomou

Problems of probabilistic inference and decision making under uncertainty commonly involve continuous random variables. Often these are discretized to a few points, to simplify assessments and computations. An alternative approximation is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 William B. Poland , Ross D. Shachter

This paper develops a unified methodology for probabilistic analysis and optimal control design for jump diffusion processes defined by polynomials. For such systems, the evolution of the moments of the state can be described via a system…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Andrew Lamperski , Khem Raj Ghusinga , Abhyudai Singh

We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-28 Lukáš Adam , Martin Branda

We consider optimal stopping problems, in which a sequence of independent random variables is drawn from a known continuous density. The objective of such problems is to find a procedure which maximizes the expected reward; this is often…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Hugh Entwistle , Christopher Lustri , Georgy Sofronov

Information theoretic quantities are extremely useful in discovering relationships between two or more data sets. One popular method---particularly for continuous systems---for estimating these quantities is the nearest neighbour…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-19 Joshua Brown , Terry Bossomaier , Lionel Barnett

One of the core problems in variational inference is a choice of approximate posterior distribution. It is crucial to trade-off between efficient inference with simple families as mean-field models and accuracy of inference. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Evgenii Egorov , Kirill Neklydov , Ruslan Kostoev , Evgeny Burnaev

We study the existing algorithms that solve the multidimensional martingale optimal transport. Then we provide a new algorithm based on entropic regularization and Newton's method. Then we provide theoretical convergence rate results and we…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-31 Hadrien De March

We propose a method for transforming probability distributions so that parameters of interest are forced into a specified distribution. We prove that this approach is the maximum entropy choice, and provide a motivating example applicable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-13 Will Handley , Marius Millea

In most data-scientific approaches, the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is used to a posteriori justify some parametric model which has been already chosen based on experience, prior knowledge or computational simplicity. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-29 Orestis Loukas , Ho Ryun Chung

Moments of large datasets utilise the mean of the dataset; consequently, updating the dataset traditionally requires one to update the mean, which then requires one to recalculate the moment. This means that metrics such as the standard…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-12-27 Benjamin J. Q. Woods

The aim of this study is to generalise recent results of the two last authors on en-tropy methods for measure solutions of the renewal equation to other classes of structured population problems. Specifically, we develop a generalised…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-04-11 Tomasz Dębiec , Marie Doumic , Piotr Gwiazda , Emil Wiedemann

Efficient approximation lies at the heart of large-scale machine learning problems. In this paper, we propose a novel, robust maximum entropy algorithm, which is capable of dealing with hundreds of moments and allows for computationally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-05 Diego Granziol , Binxin Ru , Stefan Zohren , Xiaowen Doing , Michael Osborne , Stephen Roberts

We describe a method to computationally estimate the probability density function of a univariate random variable by applying the maximum entropy principle with some local conditions given by Gaussian functions. The estimation errors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-21 Mihail-Ioan Pop

The method of optimizing entropy is used to (i) conduct Asymptotic Hypothesis Testing and (ii) determine the particle distribution for which Entropy is maximized. This paper focuses on two related applications of Information Theory:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-09 Khizar Qureshi

Inverse problems arise in situations where data is available, but the underlying model is not. It can therefore be necessary to infer the parameters of the latter starting from the former. Statistical mechanics offers a toolbox of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-07-04 Stefano Bae , Dario Bocchi , Luca Maria Del Bono , Luca Leuzzi

(Jaynes') Method of (Shannon-Kullback's) Relative Entropy Maximization (REM or MaxEnt) can be - at least in the discrete case - according to the Maximum Probability Theorem (MPT) viewed as an asymptotic instance of the Maximum Probability…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-27 M. Grendar, , M. Grendar
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