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This paper discusses a general framework for smoothing parameter estimation for models with regular likelihoods constructed in terms of unknown smooth functions of covariates. Gaussian random effects and parametric terms may also be…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-10 Simon N. Wood , Natalya Pya , Benjamin Säfken

Intuitively, unfamiliarity should lead to lack of confidence. In reality, current algorithms often make highly confident yet wrong predictions when faced with relevant but unfamiliar examples. A classifier we trained to recognize gender is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Zhizhong Li , Derek Hoiem

This paper describes a method for estimating the marginal likelihood or Bayes factors of Bayesian models using non-parametric importance sampling ("arrogance sampling"). This method can also be used to compute the normalizing constant of…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-17 Benedict Escoto

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-04-07 Antonio Lima , Veljko Pejovic , Luca Rossi , Mirco Musolesi , Marta Gonzalez

The ability to share social network data at the level of individual connections is beneficial to science: not only for reproducing results, but also for researchers who may wish to use it for purposes not foreseen by the data releaser.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Daniele Romanini , Sune Lehmann , Mikko Kivelä

Empirical Bayes small area estimation based on the well-known Fay-Herriot model may produce unreliable estimates when outlying areas exist. Existing robust methods against outliers or model misspecification are generally inefficient when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-28 Daisuke Kurisu , Takuya Ishihara , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Estimates of population size for hidden and hard-to-reach individuals are of particular interest to health officials when health problems are concentrated in such populations. Efforts to derive these estimates are often frustrated by a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-02-01 Bilal Khan , Hsuan-Wei Lee , Kirk Dombrowski

There is a growing interest in cell-type-specific analysis from bulk samples with a mixture of different cell types. A critical first step in such analyses is the accurate estimation of cell-type proportions in a bulk sample. Although many…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-12 Biao Cai , Jingfei Zhang , Hongyu Li , Chang Su , Hongyu Zhao

We investigate the discrepancy principle for choosing smoothing parameters for kernel density estimation. The method is based on the distance between the empirical and estimated distribution functions. We prove some new positive and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Thoralf Mildenberger

This work is concerned with the estimation of hard-to-reach population sizes using a single respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey, a variant of chain-referral sampling that leverages social relationships to reach members of a hidden…

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…

In certain privacy-sensitive scenarios within fields such as clinical trial simulations, federated learning, and distributed learning, researchers often face the challenge of estimating correlations between variables without access to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Longwen Shang , Min Tsao , Xuekui Zhang

Multicellular systems play a key role in bioprocess and biomedical engineering. Cell ensembles encountered in these setups show phenotypic variability like size and biochemical composition. As this variability may result in undesired…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-07-16 Armin Küper , Robert Dürr , Steffen Waldherr

Safe artificial intelligence for perception tasks remains a major challenge, partly due to the lack of data with high-quality labels. Annotations themselves are subject to aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, which is typically ignored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Jonathan Klees , Tobias Riedlinger , Peter Stehr , Bennet Böddecker , Daniel Kondermann , Matthias Rottmann

The stochastic block model is one of the most studied network models for community detection. It is well-known that most algorithms proposed for fitting the stochastic block model likelihood function cannot scale to large-scale networks.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Jiangzhou Wang , Jingfei Zhang , Binghui Liu , Ji Zhu , Jianhua Guo

One of the most common methods for statistical inference is the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The MLE needs to compute the normalization constant in statistical models, and it is often intractable. Using unnormalized statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-26 Takafumi Kanamori , Takashi Takenouchi

This article introduces a general statistical modeling principle called "Density Sharpening" and applies it to the analysis of discrete count data. The underlying foundation is based on a new theory of nonparametric approximation and…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Subhadeep Mukhopadhyay

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Peigen Zhou

In this paper, we propose a model that could be used by system developers to measure the privacy risk perceived by users when they disclose data into software systems. We first derive a model to measure the perceived privacy risk based on…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-10-01 Awanthika Senarath , Marthie Grobler , Nalin Asanka Gamagedara Arachchilage