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One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-29 John Cotter , Simon Stevenson

We study using large deviation theory the fluctuations of time-integrated functionals or observables of the unbiased random walk evolving on Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs, and construct a modified, biased random walk that explains how these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-03-06 Francesco Coghi , Jules Morand , Hugo Touchette

We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Jonas F. Frederiksen , Muneya Matsui , Rasmus S. Pedersen

In forecasting problems it is important to know whether or not recent events represent a regime change (low long-term predictive potential), or rather a local manifestation of longer term effects (potentially higher predictive potential).…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-09 Timothy Graves , Robert B. Gramacy , Christian Franzke , Nicholas Watkins

For sequences of non-lattice weakly dependent random variables, we obtain asymptotic expansions for Large Deviation Principles. These expansions, commonly referred to as strong large deviation results, are in the spirit of Edgeworth…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Kasun Fernando , Pratima Hebbar

We study functional convergence of sums of moving averages with random coefficients and heavy-tailed innovations. Under some standard moment conditions and the assumption that all partial sums of the series of coefficients are a.s. bounded…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-22 Danijel Krizmanić

In the paper we consider the asymptotics of logarithmic tails of a perpetuity $$R \stackrel{d}{=}\sum_{j=1}^\infty Q_j \prod_{k=1}^{j-1}M_k,\qquad(M_n,Q_n)_{n=1}^\infty \mbox{ are i.i.d. copies of }(M,Q),$$ in the case when…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Bartosz Kołodziejek

We establish sufficient conditions on durations that are stationary with finite variance and memory parameter $d \in [0,1/2)$ to ensure that the corresponding counting process $N(t)$ satisfies $\textmd{Var} N(t) \sim C t^{2d+1}$ ($C>0$) as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-19 Rohit Deo , Clifford M. Hurvich , Philippe Soulier , Yi Wang

We establish the large deviation probabilities for the height of random recursive trees, revealing polynomial upper-tail decay and stretched-exponential lower-tail decay. Remarkably, the lower tail features an atypical prefactor that grows…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Xinxin Chen , Heng Ma

Consider standard first-passage percolation on $\mathbb Z^d$. We study the lower-tail large deviations of the rescaled random metric $\widehat{\mathbf T}_n$ restricted to a box. If all exponential moments are finite, we prove that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Julien Verges

Let $(Z_n)_{n\in\N}$ be a $d$-dimensional {\it random walk in random scenery}, i.e., $Z_n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}Y(S_k)$ with $(S_k)_{k\in\N_0}$ a random walk in $\Z^d$ and $(Y(z))_{z\in\Z^d}$ an i.i.d. scenery, independent of the walk. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Nina Gantert , Wolfgang König , Zhan Shi

The effects of high optical depth phenomena, such as superradiance, are investigated in potential quantum memory materials. The results may have relevance for several schemes, including CRIB, AFC and EIT-based quantum memories, which are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-04-30 Andreas Walther , Atia Amari , Stefan Kröll , Alexey Kalachev

In this paper, the large deviations on trajectory level for ergodic Markov processes are studied. These processes take values in the non-negative quadrant of the two dimension lattice and are concentrated on step-wise functions. The rates…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-22 A. Mogulskii , E. Pechersky , A. Yambartsev

A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jaume Masoliver , Miquel Montero , Alan McKane

This paper is concerned with the general theme of relating the Large Deviation Principle (LDP) for the invariant measures of stochastic processes to the associated sample path LDP. It is shown that if the sample path deviation function…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-10 Anatolii A. Puhalskii

We establish functional limit theorems for ergodic sums of observables with power singularities for expanding circle maps. In the regime where the observables have infinite variance, we show that when rescaled by $N^{1/s}(\ln N)^\alpha$,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-03 Dmitry Dolgopyat , Sixu Liu

We consider a multivariate heavy-tailed stochastic volatility model and analyze the large-sample behavior of its sample covariance matrix. We study the limiting behavior of its entries in the infinite-variance case and derive results for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Anja Janßen , Thomas Mikosch , Mohsen Rezapour , Xiaolei Xie

We obtain decay rates of probabilities of tails of polynomials in several independent random variables with heavy tails and derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of such polynomials

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-26 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

Many natural and physical processes display long memory and extreme events. In these systems, the measured time series is invariably contaminated by noise. As the extreme events display large deviation from the mean behaviour, the noise…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2021-11-23 Dayal Singh , M. S. Santhanam

We examine the asymptotic behaviour of the sample autocovariance in a continuous-time moving average model with long-range dependence. We show that it is either asymptotically Rosenblatt distributed or stable distributed. This shows that…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-24 Felix Spangenberg