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Given a statistical model, we propose a novel estimation method that yields randomised estimators for the unknown distribution of an observed random variable. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the performance of these estimators and…
Atypical, rare trajectories of dynamical systems are important: they are often the paths for chemical reactions, the haven of (relative) stability of planetary systems, the rogue waves that are detected in oil platforms, the structures that…
Considering the issue of estimating small probabilities p, ie. measuring a rare domain F = {x | g(x) > q} with respect to the distribution of a random vector X, Multilevel Splitting strategies (also called Subset Simulation) aim at writing…
Gaining insights from realistic dynamical models of biochemical systems can be challenging given their large number of state variables. Model reduction techniques can mitigate this by decreasing complexity by mapping the model onto a…
A new upscaling procedure that provides 1D representations of 2D mixing-limited reactive transport systems is developed and applied. A key complication with upscaled models in this setting is that the procedure must differentiate between…
In this article, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of hypotheses when the individual test statistics are not necessarily independent. Specifically, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of point null hypotheses…
In this paper, we develop simple, yet efficient, procedures for sampling approximations of the two-Parameter Poisson-Dirichlet Process and the normalized inverse-Gaussian process. We compare the efficiency of the new approximations to the…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
Sequential inspection is a technique employed to monitor product quality during the production process. For smaller batch sizes, the Acceptable Quality Limit(AQL) inspection theory is typically applied, whereas for larger batch sizes, the…
We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…
In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic process that serves as a natural discrete-time counterpart to the continuous-time model known as the ``Poisson hyperbolic staircase'' proposed by Levikson et al. (1999), and clarify its…
We derive tests of stationarity for univariate time series by combining change-point tests sensitive to changes in the contemporary distribution with tests sensitive to changes in the serial dependence. The proposed approach relies on a…
Stationary stochastic processes with independent increments, of which the Poisson process is a prominent example, are widely used to describe real world events. With the basic assumption that a counting process is stationary and has…
Reaction paths and probabilities are inferred, in a usual Monte Carlo or Molecular Dynamic simulation, directly from the evolution of the positions of the particles. The process becomes time-consuming in many interesting cases in which the…
Timed model checking, the method to formally verify real-time systems, is attracting increasing attention from both the model checking community and the real-time community. Explicit-time description methods verify real-time systems using…
An idea for evaluating transition probabilities in chemical reaction systems is proposed, which is efficient for repeated calculations with various rate constants. The idea is based on duality relations; instead of direct time-evolutions of…
The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the…
We consider predictive checking for Bayesian model assessment using leave-one-out probability integral transform (LOO-PIT). LOO-PIT values are conditional cumulative predictive probabilities given LOO predictive distributions and…
The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…
How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators.…