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We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Patrick Bastian , Tim Kutta , Rupsa Basu , Holger Dette

We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-22 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski

Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-07-19 Sarah Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

This paper studies the robustness of observability of a linear time-invariant system under sensor failures from a computational perspective. To be precise, the problem of determining the minimum number of sensors whose removal can destroy…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-18 Yuan Zhang , Yuanqing Xia , Kun Liu

Prediction failures of machine learning models often arise from deficiencies in training data, such as incorrect labels, outliers, and selection biases. However, such data points that are responsible for a given failure mode are generally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-11 Ryutaro Tanno , Melanie F. Pradier , Aditya Nori , Yingzhen Li

In this work, a system subject to different deterioration processes is analysed. The arrival of the degradation processes to the system is modelled using a shot-noise Cox process. The degradation processes grow according to an homogeneous…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-18 L. Bautista , Inma T. Castro , L. Landesa

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

The growing use of permanent monitoring systems has increased data availability, offering new opportunities for structural assessment but also posing scalability challenges, especially across large bridge networks. Managing multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Elisa Tomassini , Enrique García-Macías , Filippo Ubertini

Errors are prevalent in time series data, such as GPS trajectories or sensor readings. Existing methods focus more on anomaly detection but not on repairing the detected anomalies. By simply filtering out the dirty data via anomaly…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-03-30 Aoqian Zhang , Shaoxu Song , Jianmin Wang , Philip S. Yu

Machine learning systems deployed in the real world must operate under dynamic and often unpredictable distribution shifts. This challenges the validity of statistical safety assurances on the system's risk established beforehand. Common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Alexander Timans , Rajeev Verma , Eric Nalisnick , Christian A. Naesseth

Traditional survival analysis techniques focus on the occurrence of failures over the time. During analysis of such events, ignoring the related unobserved covariates or heterogeneity involved in data sample may leads us to adverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Shikhar Tyagi , Arvind Pandey , David D Hanagal

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-17 Hossein Soleimani , James Hensman , Suchi Saria

Progression of chronic disease is often manifested by repeated occurrences of disease-related events over time. Delineating the heterogeneity in the risk of such recurrent events can provide valuable scientific insight for guiding…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-16 Huijuan Ma , Limin Peng , Chiung-Yu Huang , Haoda Fu

In a system, there are identical replaceable components working for a given task and a failed component is replaced by a functioning one in the corresponding position, which characterizes a repairable system. Assuming that a replaced…

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 William Kengne , Isidore Séraphin Ngongo

In this paper we investigate the statistical behavior of an annealed continuous damage model. For different model variations we study distributions of times to failure and compare these results with the classical case of metastable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-28 S. G. Abaimov , A. Roy , J. P. Cusumano

In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-31 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

This paper extends the subjects dicussed in the Data Analysis and Dynamical Systems courses by looking at the subject of modelling data. This task is nontrivial as the underlying process could be non-linear. In the paper some common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-02 Vincent Mellor

This paper reviews recent advances in missing data research using graphical models to represent multivariate dependencies. We first examine the limitations of traditional frameworks from three different perspectives: \textit{transparency,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-15 Karthika Mohan , Judea Pearl

Missing data is pervasive in econometric applications, and rarely is it plausible that the data are missing (completely) at random. This paper proposes a methodology for studying the robustness of results drawn from incomplete datasets.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-29 Daniel Ober-Reynolds