Related papers: Credit risk - A structural model with jumps and co…
There exists a range of different models for estimating and simulating credit risk transitions to optimally manage credit risk portfolios and products. In this chapter we present a Coupled Markov Chain approach to model rating transitions…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
We consider the problem of detecting jumps in an otherwise smoothly evolving trend whilst the covariance and higher-order structures of the system can experience both smooth and abrupt changes over time. The number of jump points is allowed…
We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm's ability to avoid default even if company's liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a…
In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…
In this paper we propose a copula contagion mixture model for correlated default times. The model includes the well known factor, copula, and contagion models as its special cases. The key advantage of such a model is that we can study the…
We report evidence of a deep interplay between cross-correlations hierarchical properties and multifractality of New York Stock Exchange daily stock returns. The degree of multifractality displayed by different stocks is found to be…
This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…
In many insurance contexts, dependence between risks of a portfolio may arise from their frequencies. We investigate a dependent risk model in which we assume the vector of count variables to be a tree-structured Markov random field with…
In this paper we consider the problem of calculating the quantiles of a risky position, the dynamic of which is described as a continuous time regime-switching jump-diffusion, by using Fourier Transform methods. Furthermore, we study a…
Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses.…
Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…
Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…
We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or…
Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced…
We introduce a model for the loss distribution of a credit portfolio considering a contagion mechanism for the default of names which is the result of two independent components: an infection attempt generated by defaulting entities and a…
We construct a continuous time model for price-mediated contagion precipitated by a common exogenous stress to the banking book of all firms in the financial system. In this setting, firms are constrained so as to satisfy a risk-weight…
The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to compute the price dynamics of traded securities one needs to solve a…
Operational risk is challenging to quantify because of the broad range of categories (fraud, technological issues, natural disasters) and the heavy-tailed nature of realized losses. Operational risk modeling requires quantifying how these…
The fragility of financial systems was starkly demonstrated in early 2023 through a cascade of major bank failures in the United States, including the second, third, and fourth largest collapses in the US history. The highly interdependent…