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Weighted least squares polynomial approximation uses random samples to determine projections of functions onto spaces of polynomials. It has been shown that, using an optimal distribution of sample locations, the number of samples required…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Fabio Nobile , Raúl Tempone , Sören Wolfers

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-28 Nick James , Max Menzies

A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-25 Jake Carson , Michel Crucifix , Simon Preston , Richard D. Wilkinson

We define and study in detail \emph{utraslow scaled Brownian motion (USBM)\/} characterised by a time dependent diffusion coefficient of the form $D(t)\simeq 1/t$. For unconfined motion the mean squared displacement (MSD) of USBM exhibits…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-30 Anna Bodrova , Aleksei V. Chechkin , Andrey G. Cherstvy , Ralf Metzler

Unmeasured confounding can severely bias causal effect estimates from spatiotemporal observational data, especially when the confounders do not vary smoothly in time and space. In this work, we develop a method for addressing unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-29 Jiaxi Wu , Alexander Franks

The analysis of human microbiome data is often based on dimension-reduced graphical displays and clustering derived from vectors of microbial abundances in each sample. Common to these ordination methods is the use of biologically motivated…

Applications · Statistics 2017-01-11 Timothy W. Randolph , Sen Zhao , Wade Copeland , Meredith Hullar , Ali Shojaie

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity across patient subgroups is a fundamental aspect of clinical trial analysis. Yet, these analyses have inherent limitations due to small sample sizes and the substantial number of subgroups…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Marcel Wolbers , Miriam Pedrera Gómez , Alex Ocampo , Isaac Gravestock

In this paper, a linear model with grouped explanatory variables is considered. The idea is to perform an automatic detection of different successive groups of the unknown coefficients under the assumption that the number of groups is of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-22 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matus Maciak , Francois Wahl

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-01-27 K. Triantafyllopoulos , P. J. Harrison

Posterior predictive p-values (ppps) have become popular tools for Bayesian model assessment, being general-purpose and easy to use. However, interpretation can be difficult because their distribution is not uniform under the hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-01 Sally Paganin , Perry de Valpine

In this paper, we compare maximum likelihood (ML), quasi likelihood (QL) and weighted least squares (WLS) estimators for proportional error nonlinear regression models. Literature on thermoluminescence sedimentary dating revealed another…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-25 Richard A. Lockhart , Chandanie W. Navaratna

The American Community Survey (ACS) provides one-year (1y), three-year (3y) and five-year (5y) multi-year estimates (MYEs) of various demographic and economic variables for each "community", although the 1y and 3y may not be available for…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-09 Tucker McElroy

Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. We propose a three-stage procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-31 Abolfazl Safikhani , Ali Shojaie

Analysis of sample survey data often requires adjustments to account for missing data in the outcome variables of principal interest. Standard adjustment methods based on item imputation or on propensity weighting factors rely heavily on…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-08 Wei-Yin Loh , John Eltinge , MoonJung Cho , Yuanzhi Li

We consider the joint estimation of change point locations and the sparsity pattern of the variance covariance matrix, which is assumed to evolve in a piecewise constant manner. By applying Group Fused LASSO and LASSO penalties to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ying Lin , Benjamin Poignard

We consider the problem of predicting as well as the best linear combination of d given functions in least squares regression under L^\infty constraints on the linear combination. When the input distribution is known, there already exists…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-14 Jean-Yves Audibert , Olivier Catoni

We investigate the choice of tuning parameters for a Bayesian multi-level group lasso model developed for the joint analysis of neuroimaging and genetic data. The regression model we consider relates multivariate phenotypes consisting of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-29 Farouk S. Nathoo , Keelin Greenlaw , Mary Lesperance

We consider a model of branching Brownian motion with self repulsion. Self-repulsion is introduced via change of measure that penalises particles spending time in an $\e$-neighbourhood of each other. We derive a simplified version of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-19 Anton Bovier , Lisa Hartung

Penalized spline regression is a popular method for scatterplot smoothing, but there has long been a debate on how to construct confidence intervals for penalized spline fits. Due to the penalty, the fitted smooth curve is a biased estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-06 Ning Dai

Single-particle tracking allows to infer the motion of single molecules in living cells. When we observe a long trajectory (more than 100 points), it is possible that the particle switches mode of motion over time. Then, fitting a single…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-16 Vincent Briane , Charles Kervrann , Myriam Vimond
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