Related papers: Nonlinear behavior of the Chinese SSEC index with …
Margin system for margin loans using cash and stock as collateral is considered in this paper, which is the line of defence for brokers against risk associated with margin trading. The conditional probability of negative return is used as…
We consider bootstrap-based testing for threshold effects in non-linear threshold autoregressive (TAR) models. It is well-known that classic tests based on asymptotic theory tend to be oversized in the case of small, or even moderate sample…
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily periodicity in the spread time series is…
We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time…
In this paper, we study the connection between the companies in the Swedish capital market. We consider 28 companies included in the determination of the market index OMX30. The network structure of the market is constructed using different…
A regularly varying time series as introduced in Basrak and Segers (2009) is a (multivariate) time series such that all finite dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. The extremal behavior of such a process can then be…
We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process…
We utilize a fundamentally different model of trading costs to look at the effect of the opening of the Hong Kong Shanghai Connect that links the stock exchanges in the two cities, arguably the biggest event in international business and…
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the capital asset pricing model using trading data for the Chinese A-share market from 2000 to 2019. Firstly, the standard CAPM is tested using a Fama-MacBetch regression and although the results…
The measured correlations of financial time series in subsequent epochs change considerably as a function of time. When studying the whole correlation matrices, quasi-stationary patterns, referred to as market states, are seen by applying…
We analyze the Bombay stock exchange (BSE) price index over the period of last 12 years. Keeping in mind the large fluctuations in last few years, we carefully find out the transient, non-statistical and locally structured variations. For…
We use supervised learning to identify factors that predict the cross-section of returns and maximum drawdown for stocks in the US equity market. Our data run from January 1970 to December 2019 and our analysis includes ordinary least…
Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting…
Stock market indices are one of the most investigated complex systems in econophysics. Here we extend the existing literature on stock markets in connection with nonextensive statistical mechanics. We explore the nonextensivity of price…
We investigate the random permutation matrices induced by the Chinese restaurant processes with $(\alpha,\theta)$-seating. When $\alpha=0,\theta>0$, the permutations are those following Ewens measures on symmetric groups, and have been…
In this paper we propose a bivariate generalization of a weighted indexed semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that financial returns are described by a weighted indexed semi-Markov chain…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
This paper proposes a governing equation for stock market indexes that accounts for non-stationary effects. This is a linear Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) that describes the time evolution of the probability distribution function (PDF) of…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of Markov chains $(X_n,\eta_n)$ on $\mathbb{Z}_+ \times S$, where $\mathbb{Z}_+$ is the non-negative integers and $S$ is a finite set. Neither coordinate is assumed to be Markov. We assume a moments bound…
This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series data. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely…