Related papers: Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We isolate the contribution of individual…
At present, Babcock-Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear as the most promising model for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent…
Long-term sunspot observations and solar activity reconstructions reveal that the Sun occasionally slips into quiescent phases known as solar grand minima, the dynamics during which is not well understood. We use a flux transport dynamo…
The butterfly diagram of the solar cycle exhibits a poleward migration of the diffuse magnetic field resulting from the decay of trailing sunspots. It is one component of what is sometimes referred to as the "rush to the poles". We…
We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…
The growth of a large-scale magnetic field in the Sun and stars is usually possible when the dynamo number (D) is above a critical value Dc. As the star ages, its rotation rate and thus D decrease. Hence, the question is how far the solar…
The solar cycle is a complex phenomenon. To comprehensively understand it, we have to study various tracers. The most important component of this complex is the solar dynamo, which is understood as self-excitation of the solar magnetic…
The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the…
Observations show that faster-rotating stars tend to have stronger magnetic activity and shorter magnetic cycles. The cyclical magnetic activity of the Sun and stars is believed to be driven by the dynamo process. The success of the…
The large-scale magnetic field in the Sun varies with a period of approximately 22 years, although the amplitude of the cycle is subject to long-term modulation with recurrent phases of significantly reduced magnetic activity. It is…
The magnetic fields and dynamical processes in the solar polar regions play a crucial role in the solar magnetic cycle and in supplying mass and energy to the fast solar wind, ultimately being vital in controlling solar activities and…
The details of the dynamo process that is responsible for driving the solar magnetic activity cycle are still not fully understood. In particular, whilst differential rotation provides a plausible mechanism for the regeneration of the…
The details of the dynamo process in the Sun are an important aspect of research in solar-terrestrial physics and astrophysics. The surface part of the dynamo can be constrained by direct observations, but the subsurface part lacks direct…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
Observations of the meridional circulation of the Sun, which plays a key role in the operation of the solar dynamo, indicate that its speed varies with the solar cycle, becoming faster during the solar minima and slower during the solar…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…
One important ingredient of flux transport dynamo models is the rise of the toroidal magnetic field through the convection zone due to magnetic buoyancy to produce bipolar sunspots and then the generation of the poloidal magnetic field from…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…