Related papers: Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model
Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…
The most promising model for explaining the origin of solar magnetism is the flux transport dynamo model, in which the toroidal field is produced by differential rotation in the tachocline, the poloidal field is produced by the…
We believe the Babcock--Leighton process of poloidal field generation to be the main source of irregularity in the solar cycle. The random nature of this process may make the poloidal field in one hemisphere stronger than that in the other…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a…
An explanation is suggested for the north-south asymmetry of the polar magnetic field reversal in the current cycle of solar activity. The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the poloidal field generation is estimated using…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
The sunspot cycle is the magnetic cycle of the Sun produced by the dynamo process. A central idea of the solar dynamo is that the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields of the Sun sustain each other. We discuss the relevant observational…
Babcock-Leighton process, in which the poloidal field is generated through the decay and dispersal of tilted bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs), is observed to be the major process behind the generating poloidal field in the Sun. Based on this…
The polar magnetic field of the Sun is a manifestation of certain aspects of the dynamo process and is a good precursor for predicting a sunspot cycle before its onset. Although actual synoptic measurements of this field exist only from the…
The toroidal magnetic field is assumed to be generated in the tachocline in most Babcock-Leighton (BL)-type solar dynamo models, in which the poloidal field is produced by the emergence and subsequent dispersal of sunspot groups. However,…
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
Polar fields at the minimum of a sunspot cycle -- which are a manifestation of the radial component of the Sun's poloidal field -- are deemed to be the best indicator of the strength of the toroidal component, and hence the amplitude of the…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on…
Recent results indicate that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for poloidal field creation plays an important role in the solar cycle. However, modelling this mechanism has not always correctly captured the underlying physics. In particular,…
The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…