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This paper generalizes asymptotic properties obtained in the observation-driven times series models considered by \cite{dou:kou:mou:2013} in the sense that the conditional law of each observation is also permitted to depend on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Randal Douc , François Roueff , Tepmony Sim

A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-17 Luc Lehéricy , Augustin Touron

Spatial-temporal linear model and the corresponding likelihood-based statistical inference are important tools for the analysis of spatial-temporal lattice data. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-27 Xiang Zhang , Yanbing Zheng

The asymptotic normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In the present paper, we provide sharp explicit upper bounds on Zolotarev-type distances between the exact, unknown distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-19 Andreas Anastasiou , Christophe Ley

We study maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models under conditional Poisson sampling schemes. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-24 Stephen E. Fienberg , Alessandro Rinaldo

This paper explores Maximum Likelihood in parametric models in the context of Sanov type Large Deviation Probabilities. MLE in parametric models under weighted sampling is shown to be associated with the minimization of a specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-30 Michel Broniatowski , Zhansheng Cao

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of latent variable models is often recast as the minimization of a free energy functional over an extended space of parameters and probability distributions. This perspective was recently combined with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jen Ning Lim , Juan Kuntz , Samuel Power , Adam M. Johansen

We consider statistical models driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian self-similar processes with long memory and we construct maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for the drift parameter. Our approach is based on the approximation by random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-19 Karine Bertin , Soledad Torres , Ciprian Tudor

This paper considers the asymptotic properties of the recursive maximum likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models. The paper is focused on the asymptotic behavior of the log-likelihood function and on the point-convergence and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-24 Vladislav B. Tadić

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in a partially observed linear Gaussian system with small noises in the state and observation equations. We describe asymptotic properties of the MLE and Bayes estimators in the setting with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Yury A. Kutoyants

The assumption of log-concavity is a flexible and appealing nonparametric shape constraint in distribution modelling. In this work, we study the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a probability mass function (pmf). We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-17 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Hanna Jankowski , Kaspar Rufibach , Marios Pavlides

A Maximum Likelihood recursive state estimator is derived for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The estimator combines a particle filter to generate the conditional density and the Expectation Maximization algorithm to compute…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-22 Mohammad S. Ramadan , Robert R. Bitmead

In this article we focus on Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) for the static parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs). We will consider the case where one cannot or does not want to compute the conditional likelihood density of the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-18 Elena Ehrlich , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

If the log likelihood is approximately quadratic with constant Hessian, then the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is approximately normally distributed. No other assumptions are required. We do not need independent and identically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-06 Charles J. Geyer

We consider the problem of estimating the distribution function, the density and the hazard rate of the (unobservable) event time in the current status model. A well studied and natural nonparametric estimator for the distribution function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Piet Groeneboom , Geurt Jongbloed , Birgit I. Witte

This paper considers the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the joint distribution function of an interval censored survival time and a continuous mark variable. We provide a new explicit formula for the MLE in this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-12 Marloes H. Maathuis , Jon A. Wellner

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Duncan Ermini Leaf

Many nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the last decades. Among them, the models with regime switchings provide a class of versatile and interpretable models which have received a particular attention in the literature. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-20 Pierre Ailliot , Francoise Pene

Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is arguably the most important tool for statisticians, and many methods have been developed to find the MLE. We present a new inequality involving posterior distributions of a latent variable that holds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Niels Lundtorp Olsen

The problem of parameter estimation by the continuous time observations of a deterministic signal in white gaussian noise is considered. The asymptotic properties of the maximul likelihood estimator are described in the asymptotics of small…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-10 Oleg Chernoyarov , Yury Kutoyants , Andrei Trifonov