Related papers: A review of wildland fire spread modelling, 1990-p…
Forward propagation of input uncertainties in physics-based wildfire models is computationally prohibitive, limiting the use of high-fidelity simulators in risk assessment workflows. This work introduces a geometry-aligned bi-fidelity…
Wildland fires are complex multi-physics problems that span wide spatial scale ranges. Capturing this complexity in computationally affordable numerical simulations for process studies and "outer-loop" techniques (e.g., optimization and…
We introduce a simple mathematical model for bushfires accounting for temperature diffusion in the presence of a combustion term which is activated above a given ignition state. The model also takes into consideration the effect of the…
Quantitative social science is not only about regression analysis or, in general, data inference. Computer simulations of social mechanisms have a 60-year long history. They have been used for many different purposes -- to test scenarios,…
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
In this paper we investigate the acceleration of the expansion of premixed spherical flames and evolution of the cellular patterns on their surfaces. An asymptotic model is used for the simulations and a spectral numerical algorithm is…
Significant progress has been made on the model development for simulating turbulent reacting flows. As a consequence, we are currently in a position where key-physical aspects of fairly complex combustion processes are well understood at a…
With the rise in wood stove use in recent years, a number of experimental research efforts have been undertaken with the objective of developing cleaner, and more efficient stove designs. However, numerical modeling of stoves is still in…
Experimental data on the propagation of wildfires show that its short-time spread has a double semi-elliptical shape. Our main goal is to show that this shape can be accurately approximated in polar coordinates by choosing suitable…
The aim of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of re-implementing some key parts of the widely used Weather Research and Forecasting WRF-SFIRE simulator by replacing its core differential equations numerical solvers with…
Motivated by the results of recent laboratory experiments (Yoshida et al. Nature, 424, 303-306 (2003)) as well as many earlier field observations that evolutionary changes can take place in ecosystems over relatively short ecological time…
Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide…
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…
In this work, we study the propagation of wildfires using an advection--diffusion--reaction model which also includes convective and radiative heat loss. An existing model is discussed \cite{asensio_2002} and a physically consistent…
Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of…
Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…
A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be…
Recent increase in wildfires worldwide has led to the need for real-time fire nowcasting. Physics-driven models, such as cellular automata and computational fluid dynamics can provide high-fidelity fire spread simulations but they are…
Simulation models are an absolute necessity in the human and social sciences, which can only very exceptionally use experimental science methods to construct their knowledge. Models enable the simulation of social processes by replacing the…
A two-dimensional model of wildfire spread and merger is presented. Three features affect the fire propagation: (i) a constant basic rate of spread term accounting for radiative and convective heat transfer, (ii) the unidirectional,…