Related papers: Self-affirmation model for football goal distribut…
Anomaly detection methods are widely used but often rely on ad hoc rules or strong assumptions, and they often focus on tail events, missing ``inlier'' anomalies that occur in low-density gaps between modes. We propose a unified framework…
The expected goal models have gained popularity, but their interpretability is often limited, especially when trained using black-box methods. Explainable artificial intelligence tools have emerged to enhance model transparency and extract…
We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…
Recent developments in extracting and processing biological and clinical data are allowing quantitative approaches to studying living systems. High-throughput sequencing, expression profiles, proteomics, and electronic health records are…
We discuss a general method to construct correlated binomial distributions by imposing several consistent relations on the joint probability function. We obtain self-consistency relations for the conditional correlations and conditional…
In international football (soccer), two-legged knockout ties, with each team playing at home in one leg and the final outcome decided on aggregate, are common. Many players, managers and followers seem to believe in the `second-leg home…
A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…
Can one understand the statistics of wins and losses of baseball teams? Are their consecutive-game winning and losing streaks self-reinforcing or can they be described statistically? We apply the Bradley-Terry model, which incorporates the…
Recently Khmaladze has shown how to `rotate' one empirical process to another. This paper is the first to apply this transform when successive data points are generated by a single distributional family, but with covariates varying over the…
A knowledgeable observer of a game of football (soccer) can make a subjective evaluation of the quality of passes made between players during the game. We investigate the problem of producing an automated system to make the same evaluation…
A large branch of explainable machine learning is grounded in cooperative game theory. However, research indicates that game-theoretic explanations may mislead or be hard to interpret. We argue that often there is a critical mismatch…
Statistical analysis is an important tool to distinguish systematic from chance findings. Current statistical analyses rely on distributional assumptions reflecting the structure of some underlying model, which if not met lead to problems…
Composing a team of professional players is among the most crucial decisions in association football. Nevertheless, transfer market decisions are often based on myopic objectives and are questionable from a financial point of view. This…
This paper develops a general framework for stochastic modeling of goals and other events in football (soccer) matches. The events are modelled as Cox processes (doubly stochastic Poisson processes) where the event intensities may depend on…
The strategic orchestration of football matchplays profoundly influences game outcomes, motivating a surge in research aimed at uncovering tactical nuances through social network analysis. In this paper, we delve into the microscopic…
We propose a bottom-up approach to the study of possession and its outcomes for association football, based on probabilistic finite state automata with transition probabilities described by a Markov process. We show how even a very simple…
Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…
Distributed consensus computation over random graph processes is considered. The random graph process is defined as a sequence of random variables which take values from the set of all possible digraphs over the node set. At each time step,…
In this study, the stochastic properties of player and team ball possession times in professional football matches are examined. Data analysis shows that player possession time follows a gamma distribution and the player count of a team…
The Football World Cup as world's favorite sporting event is a source of both entertainment and overwhelming amount of data about the games played. In this paper we analyse the available data on football world championships since 1930 until…