Related papers: Natural Priors, CMSSM Fits and LHC Weather Forecas…
We examine the effect of a prior that favours low values of fine-tuning on Bayesian multi-dimensional fits of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM or mSUGRA) to current data. The dark matter relic density, the…
Recent CMS data significantly extend the direct search exclusion for supersymmetry. We examine the impact of such data on global fits of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM) to indirect and cosmological data. By…
In most global fits of the constrained minimal supersymmetric model (CMSSM) to indirect data, the a priori likelihoods of any two points in tan beta are treated as equal, and the more fundamental mu and B Higgs potential parameters are…
We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises…
We use a newly released version of the SuperBayeS code to analyze the impact of the choice of priors and the influence of various constraints on the statistical conclusions for the preferred values of the parameters of the Constrained MSSM.…
We present an updated and extended global analysis of the Constrained MSSM (CMSSM) taking into account new limits on supersymmetry from ~5/fb data sets at the LHC. In particular, in the case of the razor limit obtained by the CMS…
We re-examine the properties of the Constrained MSSM in light of updated constraints, paying particular attention to the impact of the recent substantial shift in the Standard Model prediction for BR(B to X_s gamma). With the help of a…
The CMS and ATLAS Collaborations have recently published the results of initial direct LHC searches for supersymmetry analyzing ~ 35/pb of data taken at 7 TeV in the centre of mass. We incorporate these results into a frequentist analysis…
The data from the first run of the LHC at 7 and 8 TeV, together with the information provided by other experiments such as precision electroweak measurements, flavour measurements, the cosmological density of cold dark matter and the direct…
We perform global fits to the parameters of the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) and to a variant with non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). In addition to constraints from low-energy precision observables and the…
The Higgs boson discovery stirred interest in next-to-minimal supersymmetric models, due to the apparent fine-tuning required to accommodate it in minimal theories. To assess their naturalness, we compare fine-tuning in a $\mathbb{Z}_3$…
We review the result of SUSY parameter fits based on frequentist analyses of experimental constraints from electroweak precision data, (g-2)_mu, B-physics and cosmological data. We investigate the parameters of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM)…
The start of LHC has motivated an effort to determine the relative probability of the different regions of the MSSM parameter space, taking into account the present, theoretical and experimental, wisdom about the model. Since the present…
We perform global fits to the parameters of the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) and to a variant with non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). In addition to constraints from low-energy precision observables and the…
We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using ~1 /fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ~0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in…
In view of the imminent start of the LHC experimental programme, we use the available indirect experimental and cosmological information to estimate the likely range of parameters of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the…
The absence of supersymmetry or other new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has lead many to question naturalness arguments. With Bayesian statistics, we argue that natural models are most probable and that naturalness is not…
We perform a comprehensive exploration of the Constrained MSSM parameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and a Bayesian analysis. We compute superpartner masses and other collider observables as well as a cold dark matter…
We calculate Bayes factors to quantify how the feasibility of the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM) has changed in the light of a series of observations. This is done in the Bayesian spirit where probability reflects…
We perform a forecast of the CMSSM for the LHC based in an improved Bayesian analysis taking into account the present theoretical and experimental wisdom about the model. In this way we obtain a map of the preferred regions of the CMSSM…