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We construct a Bayesian sequential test of two simple hypotheses about the value of the unobservable drift coefficient of a Brownian motion, with a possibility to change the initial decision at subsequent moments of time for some penalty.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Mikhail Zhitlukhin

The multiple disorder problem seeks to determine a sequence of stopping times which are as close as possible to the unknown times of disorders at which the observation process changes its probability characteristics. We derive closed form…

Applications · Statistics 2010-11-02 Pavel V. Gapeev

We consider the problem of detecting an abrupt change in the distribution of a sequentially observed stochastic process. We establish the optimality of the CUSUM test with respect to a modified version of Lorden's criterion for arbitrary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-13 Alexandra Chronopoulou , Georgios Fellouris

A generalized multisensor sequential change detection problem is considered, in which a number of (possibly correlated) sensors monitor an environment in real time, the joint distribution of their observations is determined by a global…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-12 Georgios Fellouris , Grigory Sokolov

In the quickest change detection problem in which both nuisance and critical changes may occur, the objective is to detect the critical change as quickly as possible without raising an alarm when either there is no change or a nuisance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Tze Siong Lau , Wee Peng Tay

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-29 Robert C. Dalang , Albert N. Shiryaev

We solve an optimal stopping problem where the underlying diffusion is Brownian motion on $\bf R$ with a positive drift changing at zero. It is assumed that the drift $\mu_1$ on the negative side is smaller than the drift $\mu_2$ on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-15 Ernesto Mordecki , Paavo Salminen

We investigate the problem of covert quickest change detection in a continuous-time setting, where a Brownian motion experiences a drift change at an unknown time. Unlike classical formulations, we consider a covert adversary who adjusts…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Amir Reza Ramtin , Philippe Nain , Don Towsley

We investigate an optimal stopping problem for the expected value of a discounted payoff on a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion under two constraints on the possible stopping times: only at exogenous random times and only during a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Takuji Arai , Masahiko Takenaka

In sequential change detection, existing performance measures differ significantly in the way they treat the time of change. By modeling this quantity as a random time, we introduce a general framework capable of capturing and better…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 George V. Moustakides

We formulate and solve a variant of the quickest detection problem which features false negatives. A standard Brownian motion acquires a drift at an independent exponential random time which is not directly observable. Based on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Tiziano De Angelis , Jhanvi Garg , Quan Zhou

The problem of decentralized sequential change detection is considered, where an abrupt change occurs in an area monitored by a number of sensors; the sensors transmit their data to a fusion center, subject to bandwidth and energy…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-12 Georgios Fellouris , George V. Moustakides

We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Erik Ekström , Juozas Vaicenavicius

We study a Wiener disorder problem of detecting the minimum of $N$ change-points in $N$ observation channels coupled by correlated noises. It is assumed that the observations in each dimension can have different strengths and that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-29 Hongzhong Zhang , Neofytos Rodosthenous , Olympia Hadjiliadis

The classical problem of quickest change detection is studied with an additional constraint on the cost of observations used in the detection process. The change point is modeled as an unknown constant, and minimax formulations are proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-19 Taposh Banerjee , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

We consider a fractional Brownian motion with unknown linear drift such that the drift coefficient has a prior normal distribution and construct a sequential test for the hypothesis that the drift is positive versus the alternative that it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Alexey Muravlev , Mikhail Zhitlukhin

We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Albert N. Shiryaev

In the classical quickest change detection problem, an observer performs a single experiment to monitor a stochastic process. The goal in the classical problem is to detect a change in the statistical properties of the process, with the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-08 Patrick Vincent N. Lubenia , Taposh Banerjee

The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Taposh Banerjee , George V. Moustakides

We consider optimal stopping problems for a Brownian motion and a geometric Brownian motion with a "disorder", assuming that the moment of a disorder is uniformly distributed on a finite interval. Optimal stopping rules are found as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-18 A. N. Shiryaev , M. V. Zhitlukhin
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