Related papers: On Predicting the Solar Cycle using Mean-Field Mod…
We explore the capabilities of time-dependent (TD) magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind simulations with the coupled WSA model of the solar corona and GAMERA model of the inner heliosphere. We compare TD with steady state (SS) simulations…
The operation of the solar dynamo, with all of its remarkable spatio-temporal ordering, remains an outstanding problem of modern solar physics. A number of mechanisms that might plausibly contribute to its operation have been proposed, but…
Parameters of magnetic activity on the solar type stars depend on the properties of the dynamo processes operating in stellar convection zones. We apply nonlinear mean-field axisymmetric $\alpha^2\Omega$ dynamo models to calculate of the…
Using a nonlinear mean-field solar dynamo model, we study relationships between the amplitude of the `extended' mode of migrating zonal flows (`torsional oscillations') and magnetic cycles, and investigate whether properties the torsional…
It is shown that the description of the solar cycle that takes into account the odd zonal harmonic of the solar magnetic field allows us to deepen our knowledge of two important aspects of the solar activity. First, to clarify and expand…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
The Sun and solar-type stars exhibit irregular cyclic variations in their magnetic activity over long time scales. To understand this irregularity, we employed the flux transport dynamo models to investigate the behavior of one solar mass…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity…
Measuring the depth variation of the meridional flows is important for understanding the solar cycle, at least according to a number of dynamo models. While attempting to extend the early observations of \citet{giles_thesis} of…
The duration of activity growths in solar cycles is on average shorter than the duration of its declines. This asymmetry can result from fluctuations in dynamo parameters. A solar dynamo model with fluctuations in the $\alpha$-effect shows…
The input of the Solar wind models plays a significant role in accurate solar wind predictions at 1 AU. This work introduces a synthetic magnetogram produced from a dynamo model as an input for Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. We…
A two-wave dynamo model was recently proposed by Zharkova et al. (2015, Zh15 henceforth), which aims at long-term predictions of solar activity for millennia ahead and backwards. Here we confront the backward model predictions for the last…
Observations of the sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north-south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which the sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar…
We present in this work the development of a solar data assimilation method based on an axisymmetric mean field dynamo model and magnetic surface data, our mid-term goal is to predict the solar quasi cyclic activity. Here we focus on the…
Global dynamo simulations solving the equations of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have been a tool of astrophysicists who try to understand the magnetism of the Sun for several decades now. During recent years many fundamental issues in dynamo…
We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…
Recent data on superflares on sun-like stars and radiocarbon data on solar activity in the past are both indicative of transient epochs of unusually high magnetic activity. We propose an explanation for the grand activity maxima in the…
The role of turbulent effects for dynamos in the Sun and stars continues to be debated. Mean-field (MF) theory provides a broadly used framework to connect these effects to fundamental magnetohydrodynamics. While inaccessible…
Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…