Related papers: On the Computational Complexity of MCMC-based Esti…
In this paper we study the Metropolis algorithm in connection with two mean--field spin systems, the so called mean--field Ising model and the Blume--Emery--Griffiths model. In both this examples the naive choice of proposal chain gives…
Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…
The iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-CSMC) algorithm from Andrieu, Doucet and Holenstein (2010) is an MCMC approach for efficiently sampling from the joint posterior distribution of the $T$ latent states in challenging…
In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…
Multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the appealing feature of being amenable to parallel computing. At each iteration, it samples several candidates for the next state of the Markov chain and…
This paper proposes Bayesian mosaic, a parallelizable composite posterior, for scalable Bayesian inference on a broad class of multivariate discrete data models. Sampling is embarrassingly parallel since Bayesian mosaic is a multiplication…
This work introduces a Bayesian methodology for fitting large discrete graphical models with spike-and-slab priors to encode sparsity. We consider a quasi-likelihood approach that enables node-wise parallel computation resulting in reduced…
We investigate local MCMC algorithms, namely the random-walk Metropolis and the Langevin algorithms, and identify the optimal choice of the local step-size as a function of the dimension $n$ of the state space, asymptotically as…
In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…
Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…
A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…
In a smooth semiparametric model, the marginal posterior distribution of the finite dimensional parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution of frequentist's efficient estimators. This is…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a useful class of methods for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is computationally intractable. In practice, the basic ABC algorithm may be inefficient in the presence of discrepancy…
Experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models is required for model predictive control and characterization of building energy performance. In these applications, the uncertainty assessment of the parameter estimates is decisive; this…
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…
Bayesian models that can handle both over and under dispersed counts are rare in the literature, perhaps because full probability distributions for dispersed counts are rather difficult to construct. This note takes a first look at Bayesian…
In this paper, we develop a general approach to proving global and local uniform limit theorems for the Horvitz-Thompson empirical process arising from complex sampling designs. Global theorems such as Glivenko-Cantelli and Donsker…
We consider the efficient use of an approximation within Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), with subsequent importance sampling (IS) correction of the Markov chain inexact output, leading to asymptotically exact inference. We detail…
Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…