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We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes. Firstly we consider the main version which is a renewal process; we also present large deviation estimates for the ruin probabilities of an insurance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-26 Luisa Beghin , Claudio Macci

Large deviation for Markov processes can be studied by Hamilton--Jacobi equation techniques. The method of proof involves three steps: First, we apply a nonlinear transform to generators of the Markov processes, and verify that limit of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jin Feng

We prove pathwise large-deviation principles of switching Markov processes by exploiting the connection to associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations, following Jin Feng's and Thomas Kurtz's method. In the limit that we consider, we show how the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Mark A. Peletier , Mikola C. Schlottke

We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Sylvain Delattre , Nicolas Fournier , Marc Hoffmann

We formulate the large deviations for a class of two scale chemical kinetic processes motivated from biological applications. The result is successfully applied to treat a genetic switching model with positive feedbacks. The corresponding…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Tiejun Li , Feng Lin

This paper develops the large deviations theory for the point process associated with the Euclidean volume of $k$-nearest neighbor balls centered around the points of a homogeneous Poisson or a binomial point processes in the unit cube. Two…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Christian Hirsch , Taegyu Kang , Takashi Owada

We derive large- and moderate-deviation results in random networks given as planar directed navigations on homogeneous Poisson point processes. In this non-Markovian routing scheme, starting from the origin, at each consecutive step a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-13 Partha Pratim Ghosh , Benedikt Jahnel , Sanjoy Kumar Jhawar

We give a general Gaussian bound for the first chaos (or innovation) of point processes with stochastic intensity constructed by embedding in a bivariate Poisson process. We apply the general result to nonlinear Hawkes processes, providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-29 Giovanni Luca Torrisi

For a class of additive processes driven by the affine recursion $X_{n+1} = A_n X_n + B_n$, we develop a sample-path large deviations principle in the $M_1'$ topology on $D [0,1]$. We allow $B_n$ to have both signs and focus on the case…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-26 Bohan Chen , Chang-Han Rhee , Bert Zwart

Large deviations principle is obtained for terminating multidimensional compound renewal processes. We also obtained the asymptotic of large deviations for the case when a Gibbs change of the original probability measure takes place. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-20 A. Logachov , A. Mogulskii , E. Prokopenko

In rough stochastic PDE theory of Hairer type, rough path lifts with respect to the space variable of two-parameter continuous Gaussian processes play a main role. A prominent example of such processes is the solution of the stochastic heat…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-26 Yuzuru Inahama

In this paper, we study precise deviations including precise large deviations and moderate deviations for discrete marked Hawkes processes for large time asymptotics by using mod-$\phi$ convergence theory.

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-29 Yingli Wang , Ping He

In this paper we propose a framework that enables the study of large deviations for point processes based on stationary sequences with regularly varying tails. This framework allows us to keep track not of the magnitude of the extreme…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Henrik Hult , Gennady Samorodnitsky

Gaussian process classification is a popular method with a number of appealing properties. We show how to scale the model within a variational inducing point framework, outperforming the state of the art on benchmark datasets. Importantly,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-10 James Hensman , Alex Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

Let $X$ be a L\'evy process with regularly varying L\'evy measure $\nu$. We obtain sample-path large deviations for scaled processes $\bar X_n(t) \triangleq X(nt)/n$ and obtain a similar result for random walks. Our results yield detailed…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Chang-Han Rhee , Jose Blanchet , Bert Zwart

We introduce stochastic variational inference for Gaussian process models. This enables the application of Gaussian process (GP) models to data sets containing millions of data points. We show how GPs can be vari- ationally decomposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 James Hensman , Nicolo Fusi , Neil D. Lawrence

We use a weak Gibbs property and a weak form of specification to derive level-2 large deviations principles for symbolic systems equipped with a large class of reference measures. This has applications to a broad class of symbolic systems,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-10-25 Vaughn Climenhaga , Daniel J. Thompson , Kenichiro Yamamoto

In this work, we study large deviation properties of the covariance process in fully connected Gaussian deep neural networks. More precisely, we establish a large deviation principle (LDP) for the covariance process in a functional…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Luisa Andreis , Federico Bassetti , Christian Hirsch

Asymptotic behavior of the point process of high and medium values of a Gaussian stationary process with discrete time is considered. An approximation by a Poisson cluster point process is given for the point process.

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Vladimir I. Piterbarg

Let $\sigma(u)$, $u\in \mathbb{R}$ be an ergodic stationary Markov chain, taking a finite number of values $a_1,...,a_m$, and $b(u)=g(\sigma(u))$, where $g$ is a bounded and measurable function. We consider the diffusion type process $$…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-24 P. Chigansky , R. Liptser