Related papers: A Better Good-Turing Estimator for Sequence Probab…
The task of the binary classification problem is to determine which of two distributions has generated a length-$n$ test sequence. The two distributions are unknown; two training sequences of length $N$, one from each distribution, are…
This paper introduces a scalable approach for probabilistic top-k similarity ranking on uncertain vector data. Each uncertain object is represented by a set of vector instances that are assumed to be mutually-exclusive. The objective is to…
We present a new method to detect anomalies in texts (in general: in sequences of any data), using language models, in a totally unsupervised manner. The method considers probabilities (likelihoods) generated by a language model, but…
Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to…
In this note we expose some surprising connections between string theory and statistical inference. We consider a large collective of agents sweeping out a family of nearby statistical models for an M-dimensional manifold of statistical…
We investigate the order of the variance of the optimal alignments score of two independent iid binary random words having the same length. The letters are equiprobable, but the scoring function is such that one letter has a larger score…
In this paper, we develop a general theory of truncated inverse binomial sampling. In this theory, the fixed-size sampling and inverse binomial sampling are accommodated as special cases. In particular, the classical Chernoff-Hoeffding…
How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…
We introduce an algorithm for the uniform generation of infinite traces, i.e., infinite words up to commutation of some letters. The algorithm outputs on-the-fly approximations of a theoretical infinite trace, the latter being distributed…
Determining whether an unknown distribution matches a known reference is a cornerstone problem in distributional analysis. While classical results establish a rigorous framework in the case of distributions over finite domains, real-world…
Abstract. The purpose of this paper is twofold. We introduce the theory of random tensors, which naturally extends the method of random averaging operators in our earlier work arXiv:1910.08492, to study the propagation of randomness under…
Recently, scaling test-time compute on Large Language Models (LLM) has garnered wide attention. However, there has been limited investigation of how various reasoning prompting strategies perform as scaling. In this paper, we focus on a…
Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are a stream of independent, identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\mu$. This work presents a new estimate $\mu_k$ for $\mu$ with the property that the distribution of the relative error…
We introduce the following natural generalization of trace reconstruction, parameterized by a deletion probability $\delta \in (0,1)$ and length $n$: There is a length $n$ string of probabilities, $S=p_1,\ldots,p_n,$ and each "trace" is…
We are concerned with estimating alphabet size $N$ from a stream of symbols taken uniformly at random from that alphabet. We define and analyze a memory-restricted variant of an algorithm that have been earlier proposed for this purpose.…
We consider the problem of estimating the distribution underlying an observed sample of data. Instead of maximum likelihood, which maximizes the probability of the ob served values, we propose a different estimate, the high-profile…
Transformation-based learning has been successfully employed to solve many natural language processing problems. It has many positive features, but one drawback is that it does not provide estimates of class membership probabilities. In…
In this paper, we consider the problem of guessing a sequence subject to a distortion constraint. Specifically, we assume the following game between Alice and Bob: Alice has a sequence $\bx$ of length $n$. Bob wishes to guess $\bx$, yet he…
The problem of estimating a complex measure made up by a linear combination of Dirac distributions centered on points of the complex plane from a finite number of its complex moments affected by additive i.i.d. Gaussian noise is considered.…
A new method to simulate probability distributions in regions where the events are VERY unlikely (e.g. p ~ 10^{-40}) is presented. The basic idea is to represent the underlying probability space by the phase space of a physical system. The…