Related papers: Approximation for extinction probability of the co…
We consider the extinction time of the contact process on increasing sequences of finite graphs obtained from a variety of random graph models. Under the assumption that the infection rate is above the critical value for the process on the…
We present two iterative methods for computing the global and partial extinction probability vectors for Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. The probabilistic interpretation of these methods involves truncated…
We consider the contact process on finite and connected graphs and study the behavior of the extinction time, that is, the amount of time that it takes for the infection to disappear in the process started from full occupancy. We prove,…
We introduce a method to prove metastability of the contact process on Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs and on configuration model graphs. The method relies on uniformly bounding the total infection rate from below, over all sets with a fixed…
In this paper, we prove lower and upper bounds for the extinction time of the contact process on random geometric graphs with connecting radius tending to infinity. We obtain that for any infection rate $\lambda >0$, the contact process on…
We consider a supercritical branching process and define a contact tracing mechanism on its genealogical tree. We calculate the growth rate of the post tracing process, and give conditions under which the tracing is strong enough to drive…
We study the contact process on the long-range percolation cluster on $\mathbb{Z}$ where each edge $\langle i,j \rangle$ is open with probability $|i-j|^{-s}$ for $s> 2$. Using a renormalization procedure we apply Peierls-type argument to…
We give an explicit formula for the most likely path to extinction for the Galton-Watson processes with large initial population. We establish this result with the help of the large deviation principle (LDP) which also recovers the…
We consider the extinction events of Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. In particular, we construct truncated and augmented Galton-Watson processes with finite but increasing sets of types. A pathwise approach is…
In order to approximate the exit time of a one-dimensional diffusion process, we propose an algorithm based on a random walk. Such an algorithm was already introduced in both the Brownian context and in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck context. Here…
Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction.The…
In this paper, the extinction problem for a class of distylous plant populations is considered within the framework of certain nonhomogeneous nearest-neighbor random walks in the positive quadrant. For the latter, extinction means…
We analyze variants of the contact process that are built by modifying the percolative structure given by the graphical construction and develop a robust renormalization argument for proving extinction in such models. With this method, we…
We consider the contact process with infection rate $\lambda$ on a random $(d+1)$-regular graph with $n$ vertices, $G_n$. We study the extinction time $\tau_{G_n}$ (that is, the random amount of time until the infection disappears) as $n$…
We consider a two-type contact process on $\Z$ in which both types have equal finite range and supercritical infection rate. We show that a given type becomes extinct with probability 1 if and only if, in the initial configuration, it is…
This paper is a collection of recent results on discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. Some results are new and others are known. Many aspects of this theory are considered: local, global and strong local survival, the…
In the field of algebraic systems biology, the number of minimal polynomial models constructed using discretized data from an underlying system is related to the number of distinct reduced Gr\"obner bases for the ideal of the data points.…
We propose the following model for speciation and extinction. Birth and deaths occur according to spatially inhomogeneous contact rates. We assume that the ratio of the birth rate over the death rate at a site converges to some limit as the…
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
Extinction times in resampling processes are fundamental yet often intractable, as previous formulas scale as $2^M$ with the number of states $M$ present in the initial probability distribution. We solve this by treating multinomial updates…