Statistics
The airborne fraction is the share of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that remains in the atmosphere and is a key indicator of carbon-cycle response and remaining carbon budgets under continued emissions. Whether this share is rising…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in statistical research and applications. However,they are also notorious for unreliable or biased information. Here, we explore whether LLMs can be used to improve the precision of…
Contact (or mixing, or more generally connectivity) matrices are a fundamental component of modelling and inference for infectious disease epidemiology. Their structure and parametrisation directly accounts for the frequency of interactions…
The mean squared displacement (MSD) of particles or probes is commonly estimated from microscopy videos using particle tracking approaches, which rely on tuning parameters manually, and are often unstable over the entire lag time range,…
In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspecification, selection effect, and lack of finite-sample…
Marine corrosion significantly reduces a ship's availability, increases costs of operation and could impact safety. Protective coatings mitigate these risks, but their effectiveness deteriorates over time. Early detection of coating…
Storage tanks for hazardous liquids are common in industry and agriculture. During a pollution incident, liquid may drain from a storage tank through a small hole, crack, or pipe. After containing the leak, estimating the discharged volume…
Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…
There is enduring interest in disentangling the effects of skill and luck in sport. A key issue in Formula 1 is distinguishing between car-level and driver-level effects. Four elite teams currently dominate Formula 1 and have won every…
Structural and practical parameter non-identifiability issues are common when mathematical models are used to interpret data. Such issues motivate model reparameterisation and reduction methods. Here, we consider Invariant Image…
Digital health technologies enable high-frequency collection of data in near-continuous time and capture rich information about the health of individuals. The raw data collected by these devices often have a hierarchical functional…
Intra-physician prescribing variability, the probability that one physician issues discordant decisions for two patients deemed comparable on observed covariates, holds great impact in quality of care, safety and cost. However, there are no…
The Empirical Bayes (EB) procedure of Hauer et al. (2002) is the workhorse of highway safety analysis: it combines a Safety Performance Function with observed crash counts to produce shrinkage estimates of segment-level crash rates. EB…
Electricity price signals in modern power systems exhibit complex dependence structures that render forecasting inherently challenging. Our analysis of real-world pricing signals from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)…
Likelihood-based inference for multivariate extreme-value models is often unreliable or infeasible when likelihoods are intractable or supports are discrete. This challenge is particularly acute for multivariate discrete generalized Pareto…
Fires and explosions in pyrotechnics retail markets recur worldwide with predictable regularity, killing dozens to hundreds of people in single events. This paper argues that the global topology of the market is the dominant determinant of…
Composites are often created to facilitate the work of decision-makers. Therefore, practical or theoretical considerations may lead to a priori weights of the indicators forming a composite. Composites that are created a weighted aggregates…
Lineage marker population frequencies can serve as one way to express evidential value in forensic genetics. However, for high-quality whole mitochondrial DNA genome sequences (mitogenomes), population data remain limited. In this paper, we…
Overbounds of heavy-tailed measurement errors are essential to meet stringent navigation requirements in integrity monitoring applications. This paper proposes to leverage the bounding sharpness of the Cauchy distribution in the core and…
Modern weather stations in Germany record daily temperatures every 10 minutes, whereas measurements from historical reference periods are often only available at much coarser temporal resolutions, typically hourly. This discrepancy must be…