Trading and Market Microstructure
Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I…
The dissertation investigates the application of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in forecasting the price of Crude Oil. This research is important because crude oil plays a very pivotal role in the global economy hence is a very…
We assume a continuous-time price impact model similar to Almgren-Chriss but with the added assumption that the price impact parameters are stochastic processes modeled as correlated scalar Markov diffusions. In this setting, we develop…
We investigate how the local fluctuations of the signed traded volumes affect the dependence of demands between stocks. We analyze the empirical dependence of demands using copulas and show that they are well described by a bivariate…
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external…
A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic…
We consider an agent who needs to buy (or sell) a relatively small amount of asset over some fixed short time interval. We work at the highest frequency meaning that we wish to find the optimal tactic to execute our quantity using limit…
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control…
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of…
Price gap, defined as the logarithmic price difference between the first two occupied price levels on the same side of a limit order book (LOB), is a key determinant of market depth, which is one of the dimensions of liquidity. However, the…
Social and economic systems are complex adaptive systems, in which heterogenous agents interact and evolve in a self-organized manner, and macroscopic laws emerge from microscopic properties. To understand the behaviors of complex systems,…
The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all…
How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different timescales. Here we reveal that price…
International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products' shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct…
Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…
We study the optimal timing strategies for trading a mean-reverting price process with afinite deadline to enter and a separate finite deadline to exit the market. The price process is modeled by a diffusion with an affine drift that…
We analyze a proprietary dataset of trades by a single asset manager, comparing their price impact with that of the trades of the rest of the market. In the context of a linear propagator model we find no significant difference between the…
This paper introduces a high frequency trade execution model to evaluate the economic impact of supervised machine learners. Extending the concept of a confusion matrix, we present a 'trade information matrix' to attribute the expected…
We introduce a framework to study the effective objectives at different time scales of financial market microstructure. The financial market can be regarded as a complex adaptive system, where purposeful agents collectively and…
Bidders in day-ahead electricity markets want to sell/buy electricity when their bids generate positive surplus and not to take an action when the reverse holds. However, non-convexities in these markets cause conflicts between the actions…