Statistical Finance
Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new…
Crypto-coins (also known as cryptocurrencies) are tradable digital assets. Notable examples include Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption…
We applied the SVAR-LiNGAM to illustrate the causal relationships between the spot exchange rate, and three crypto-asset exchange rates, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. It was notable that the causal order, the EUR_USD spot…
Advances in deep neural network (DNN) architectures have enabled new prediction techniques for stock market data. Unlike other multivariate time-series data, stock markets show two unique characteristics: (i) \emph{multi-order dynamics}, as…
Being archetypal complex systems, financial markets exhibit rich set of dynamics in their interactions. In this paper, we focus on the recently evolved cryptocurrency market as an example of a complex system and analyse the evolution of…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
The price clustering phenomenon manifesting itself as an increased occurrence of specific prices is widely observed and well-documented for various financial instruments and markets. In the literature, however, it is rarely incorporated…
In electronic trading markets, limit order books (LOBs) provide information about pending buy/sell orders at various price levels for a given security. Recently, there has been a growing interest in using LOB data for resolving downstream…
This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioural bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each…
Economy is severely dependent on the stock market. An uptrend usually corresponds to prosperity while a downtrend correlates to recession. Predicting the stock market has thus been a centre of research and experiment for a long time. Being…
This paper introduces new methods to study behaviours among the 52 largest cryptocurrencies between 01-01-2019 and 30-06-2021. First, we explore evolutionary correlation behaviours and apply a recently proposed turning point algorithm to…
We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally…
Industry classification schemes provide a taxonomy for segmenting companies based on their business activities. They are relied upon in industry and academia as an integral component of many types of financial and economic analysis.…
Cross-correlation analysis is a powerful tool for understanding the mutual dynamics of time series. This study introduces a new method for predicting the future state of synchronization of the dynamics of two financial time series. To this…
In this paper, we study the connection between the companies in the Swedish capital market. We consider 28 companies included in the determination of the market index OMX30. The network structure of the market is constructed using different…
In this paper we introduce an efficient fat-tail measurement framework that is based on the conditional second moments. We construct a goodness-of-fit statistic that has a direct interpretation and can be used to assess the impact of…
Stock selection attempts to rank a list of stocks for optimizing investment decision making, aiming at minimizing investment risks while maximizing profit returns. Recently, researchers have developed various (recurrent) neural…
Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) are crypto assets with a unique digital identifier for ownership, powered by blockchain technology. Technically speaking, anything digital could be minted and sold as an NFT, which provides proof of ownership and…
In this paper, we present a new bivariate model for the joint description of the Bitcoin prices and the media attention to Bitcoin. Our model is based on the class of the L\'evy processes and is able to realistically reproduce the jump-type…
A major concern when dealing with financial time series involving a wide variety ofmarket risk factors is the presence of anomalies. These induce a miscalibration of the models used toquantify and manage risk, resulting in potential…