Statistical Finance
This study examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on market efficiency by analyzing three time series -- price returns, absolute returns, and volatility increments -- in stock (Deutscher Aktienindex, Nikkei…
This paper examines the relationship between impermanent loss (IL) and loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) in automated market makers (AMMs). Our main focus is on statistical properties, the impact of fees, the role of block times, and, related…
There are two predominant metrics to assess the performance of automated market makers and their profitability for liquidity providers: 'impermanent loss' (IL) and 'loss-versus-rebalance' (LVR). In this short paper we shed light on the…
In the ever evolving landscape of decentralized finance automated market makers (AMMs) play a key role: they provide a market place for trading assets in a decentralized manner. For so-called bluechip pairs, arbitrage activity provides a…
In the ever evolving landscape of decentralized finance automated market makers (AMMs) play a key role: they provide a market place for trading assets in a decentralized manner. For so-called bluechip pairs, arbitrage activity provides a…
The Kullback-Leibler cluster entropy $\mathcal{D_{C}}[P \| Q] $ is evaluated for the empirical and model probability distributions $P$ and $Q$ of the clusters formed in the realized volatility time series of five assets (SP\&500, NASDAQ,…
Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods…
Price Trend Prediction (PTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and assets.…
This study evaluates the scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets using the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor-eigenvalue-based measure of realized volatility. Incorporating Granger causality and network-theoretic analysis…
We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of…
A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…
This paper explores the use of deep residual networks for pricing European options on Petrobras, one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, and compares its performance with the Black-Scholes (BS) model. Using eight years of…
This dissertation investigates the ability of the Ising model to replicate statistical characteristics, or stylized facts, commonly observed in financial assets. The study specifically examines in the S&P500 index the following features:…
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…
This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices.…
This study investigates the resilience of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investments during periods of financial instability, comparing them with traditional equity indices across major European markets-Germany, France, and…
A multivariate fractional Brownian motion (mfBm) with component-wise Hurst exponents is used to model and forecast realized volatility. We investigate the interplay between correlation coefficients and Hurst exponents and propose a novel…
The scope of this manuscript is to review some recent developments in statistics for discretely observed semimartingales which are motivated by applications for financial markets. Our journey through this area stops to take closer looks at…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and…
Applying machine learning methods to forecast stock prices has been one of the research topics of interest in recent years. Almost few studies have been reported based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) in this area, but their…