Statistical Finance
The scaling properties of oil price fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within…
Correlation matrices of foreign exchange rate time series are investigated for 60 world currencies. Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) graphs for the gold, silver and platinum are presented. Inverse power like scaling is discussed for these graphs…
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
Recent research has documented a significant rise in the volatility (e.g., expected squared change) of individual incomes in the U.S. since the 1970s. Existing measures of this trend abstract from individual heterogeneity, effectively…
We apply the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to the financial time sires analysis of the stochastic volatility (SV) model for the first time. The HMC algorithm is used for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) update of volatility…
We provide a simple explicit estimator for discretely observed Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, prove rigorously consistency and asymptotic normality based on the single assumption that all moments of the stationary distribution of…
We introduce a variant of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model where the non Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process describes some measure of trading intensity like trading volume or number of trades instead of…
The model describing market dynamics after a large financial crash is considered in terms of the stochastic differential equation of Ito. Physically, the model presents an overdamped Brownian particle moving in the nonstationary…
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable.…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…
The paper tackles the problem of deriving a topological structure among stock prices from high frequency historical values. Similar studies using low frequency data have already provided valuable insights. However, in those cases data need…
We investigate the properties of correlation based networks originating from economic complex systems, such as the network of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The weaker links (low correlation) of the system are found to…
We propose coalescent mechanism of economic grow because of redistribution of external resources. It leads to Zipf distribution of firms over their sizes, turning to stretched exponent because of size-dependent effects, and predicts…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole…
In this paper, the relevance of the Feller conditions in discrete time macro-finance term structure models is investigated. The Feller conditions are usually imposed on a continuous time multivariate square root process to ensure that the…
Log-normal continuous random cascades form a class of multifractal processes that has already been successfully used in various fields. Several statistical issues related to this model are studied. We first make a quick but extensive review…
ARCH and GARCH models assume either i.i.d. or (what economists lable as) white noise as is usual in regression analysis while assuming memory in a conditional mean square fluctuation with stationary increments. We will show that ARCH/GARCH…