Risk Management
We discuss - in what is intended to be a pedagogical fashion - a criterion, which is a lower bound on a certain ratio, for when a stock (or a similar instrument) is not a good investment in the long term, which can happen even if the…
We present an easily implemented, fast, and accurate method for approximating extreme quantiles of compound loss distributions (frequency+severity) as are commonly used in insurance and operational risk capital models. The Interpolated…
Online leading has disrupted the traditional consumer banking sector with more effective loan processing. Risk prediction and monitoring is critical for the success of the business model. Traditional credit score models fall short in…
We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position $X$ when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex…
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear…
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…
It is illustrated a methodology to compute the pure premium for the automobile insurance (claim frequency and severity) using generalized linear models. It is obtained the pure premium for the partial damage loss cover (PPD) using a set of…
The paper deals with bonus-malus systems with different claim types and varying deductibles. The premium relativities are softened for the policyholders who are in the malus zone and these policyholders are subject to per claim deductibles…
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in…
In this paper, we introduce a new model for the risk process based on general compound Hawkes process (GCHP) for the arrival of claims. We call it risk model based on general compound Hawkes process (RMGCHP). The Law of Large Numbers (LLN)…
The goal of this paper is to study organized flocking behavior and systemic risk in heterogeneous mean-field interacting diffusions. We illustrate in a number of case studies the effect of heterogeneity in the behavior of systemic risk in…
A new risk measure, the lambda value at risk (Lambda VaR), has been recently proposed from a theoretical point of view as a generalization of the value at risk (VaR). The Lambda VaR appears attractive for its potential ability to solve…
I show that the solution of a standard clearing model commonly used in contagion analyses for financial systems can be expressed as a specific form of a generalized Katz centrality measure under conditions that correspond to a system-wide…
Models continue to increase their already broad use across industry as well as their sophistication. Worldwide regulation oblige financial institutions to manage and address model risk with the same severity as any other type of risk, which…
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little…
We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov…
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands.…
We consider the problem of risk diversification of $\alpha$-stable heavy tailed risks. We study the behaviour of the aggregated Value-at-Risk, with particular reference to the impact of different tail dependence structures on the limits to…
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…