Risk Management
The classic semi-Markov disability model is expanded with individual and collective health claims to improve its explanatory and predictive power -- in particular in the context of group experience rating. The inclusion of collective health…
The aggregation of individual risks in large credit and insurance portfolios is guided by diversification and the law of large numbers, which formalizes the convergence of sample averages to their means. At the same time, regulatory capital…
We study actuarial fairness in China's notional defined contribution (NDC) pension system when mortality differs across income groups. Under current rules, individual account balances are converted into monthly benefits using an official…
Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…
This paper investigates risk measures derived from the expected maximum deficit in a continuous-time framework and develops optimal reserve allocation strategies across multiple lines of business. We formalize the expected maximum deficit…
Daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) for option books requires more than an accurate quantile forecast. It first requires a precise definition of the loss target. Before any model is evaluated, the protocol must fix the book construction rule, the…
Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in translating model-based explanations into human-readable narratives. This study evaluates whether LLMs can serve as post-hoc explainability interfaces for credit risk models, focusing on…
Standard real options theory predicts delay in exercising the option to invest or deploy when extreme asset volatility or technological uncertainty are present. However, in the current race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI),…
This paper distinguishes between risk resonance and risk diversification relationships in the cryptocurrency market based on the newly developed asymmetric breakpoint approach, and analyzes the risk propagation mechanism among…
We consider the combination of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts when a large pool of candidate forecasts is available. Given the limited literature in this area, we implement a variety of new combining methods. In…
I propose a functional on the space of spectral risk measures that quantifies their ``degree of risk aversion''. This quantification formalizes the idea that some risk measures are ``more risk-averse'' than others. I construct the…
Risk governance is not only about identifying and measuring adverse states of the world. It also asks when an institution is entitled to rely on a risk claim. This paper introduces modal epistemic tools for that second layer of QRM. For a…
Cost-of-capital valuation is a well-established approach to the valuation of liabilities and is one of the cornerstones of current regulatory frameworks for the insurance industry. Standard cost-of-capital considerations typically rely on…
This paper investigates optimal investment and insurance strategies under a mean-variance criterion with path-dependent effects. We use a rough volatility model and a Hawkes process with a power kernel to capture the path dependence of the…
Historical Simulation (HS) and its extensions form a popular class of methods for estimating Value-at-Risk for portfolios of financial assets based on historical data. In this note, we seek to unify several ideas and models from throughout…
Can contagion be inferred from aggregated default data? We study this as a problem of identifiability, asking whether contagion generates components in default count distributions that remain distinct from those induced by macroeconomic…
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) data provides non-financial insights into corporations. In this study, we aim to identify relevant ESG raw variables to assess financial risk, measured by logarithmic volatility of return. We…
This study examines the disposition effect in both long and short exposure positions in FTSE MIB tracking ETFs using a unique dataset of almost 9 million individual transactions. Building on the integrated framing approach, we extend the…
In this research, starting from a widely accepted definition of risk, we support the idea that risk reduction is a more realistic objective than risk minimization, which represents a theoretical utopia. Furthermore, significant risk…
This paper investigates two optimal insurance contracting problems under distributional uncertainty from the perspective of a potential policyholder, utilizing a Bregman-Wasserstein (BW) ball to characterize the ambiguity set of loss…