Risk Management
This paper studies the bank dynamic decision problem in the intermediate time step for a discrete-time setup. We have considered a three-time-step model. Initially, the banks raise money through debt and equity and invest in different types…
This paper introduces a two-pillar cyber risk management framework to address the pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk. The first pillar, cyber risk assessment, combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to perform well for many downstream tasks. Transfer learning can enable LLMs to acquire skills that were not targeted during pre-training. In financial contexts, LLMs can sometimes beat…
Credit Scoring is one of the problems banks and financial institutions have to solve on a daily basis. If the state-of-the-art research in Machine and Deep Learning for finance has reached interesting results about Credit Scoring models,…
Choquet capacities and integrals are central concepts in decision making under ambiguity or model uncertainty, pioneered by Schmeidler. Motivated by risk optimization problems for quantiles under ambiguity, we study the subclass of Choquet…
This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by…
In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key…
With the development of the financial industry, credit default prediction, as an important task in financial risk management, has received increasing attention. Traditional credit default prediction methods mostly rely on machine learning…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
Every publicly traded company in the US is required to file an annual 10-K financial report, which contains a wealth of information about the company. In this paper, we propose an explainable deep-learning model, called FinBERT-XRC, that…
Machine learning (ML) methods are becoming increasingly important in the design economic scenario generators for internal models. Validation of data-driven models differs from classical theory-based models. We discuss two novel aspects of…
Based on supermodularity ordering properties, we show that convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. credit-credit and, in a wrong-way risk setup, credit-market, covariances of elliptically distributed latent factors.…
This paper aims to study the prediction of the bank stability index based on the Time Series Transformer model. The bank stability index is an important indicator to measure the health status and risk resistance of financial institutions.…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
We propose a distributional formulation of the spanning problem of a multi-asset payoff by vanilla basket options. This problem is shown to have a unique solution if and only if the payoff function is even and absolutely homogeneous, and we…
In a dual risk model, the premiums are considered as the costs and the claims are regarded as the profits. The surplus can be interpreted as the wealth of a venture capital, whose profits depend on research and development. In most of the…
In the field of finance, the prediction of individual credit default is of vital importance. However, existing methods face problems such as insufficient interpretability and transparency as well as limited performance when dealing with…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances…
This paper delves into the spectrum of credit risks associated with decentralized stablecoin issuance, ranging from overcollateralized lending to business-to-business credit. It examines the mechanisms, risks, and mitigation strategies at…