Roman Binter

Shadowing trajectories are model trajectories consistent with a sequence of observations of a system, given a distribution of observational noise. The existence of such trajectories is a desirable property of any forecast model. Gradient…

An intuitively necessary requirement of models used to provide forecasts of a system's future is the existence of shadowing trajectories that are consistent with past observations of the system: given a system-model pair, do model…

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally…

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…