English

Why do financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow?

Trading and Market Microstructure 2025-05-28 v4 Statistical Mechanics General Economics Economics Mathematical Finance Pricing of Securities

Abstract

In financial market microstructure, there are two enigmatic empirical laws: (i) the market-order flow has predictable persistence due to metaorder splitters by institutional investors, well formulated as the Lillo-Mike-Farmer model. However, this phenomenon seems paradoxical given the diffusive and unpredictable price dynamics; (ii) the price impact I(Q)I(Q) of a large metaorder QQ follows the square-root law, I(Q)QI(Q)\propto \sqrt{Q}. Here we theoretically reveal why price dynamics follows Brownian motion despite predictable order flow by unifying these enigmas. We generalize the Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, which is mapped to an exactly solvable L\'evy-walk model. Our exact solution shows that the price dynamics remains diffusive under the square-root law, even under persistent order flow. This work illustrates the crucial role of the square-root law in mitigating large price movements by large metaorders, thereby leading to the Brownian price dynamics, consistently with the efficient market hypothesis over long timescales.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2502.17906,
  title  = {Why do financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow?},
  author = {Yuki Sato and Kiyoshi Kanazawa},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.17906},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Main: 7 pages, 4 figures. SI: 6 pages, 3 figures. Minor bugs in simulation codes are fixed

R2 v1 2026-06-28T21:56:50.670Z