When T-Depth Misleads: Predicting Fault-Tolerant Quantum Execution Slowdown under Magic-State Delivery Constraints

The efficient execution of fault-tolerant quantum algorithms is fundamentally limited by the production rate of magic states required for non-Clifford operations. While circuit optimization typically targets T-depth, static T-depth does not reliably predict executable performance under bounded T-state delivery. We introduce a model that captures demand-supply imbalance using two key quantities: slack ratio, a structural indicator of scheduling flexibility, and Delta_max, a measure of cumulative demand surplus. We show that Delta_max is a strong schedule-level indicator of execution slowdown and yields a provable lower bound on executable makespan for a fixed schedule. Empirical evaluation on constructed directed acyclic graph (DAG) families, with arithmetic circuits and exact quantum Fourier transform (QFT) traces providing additional grounding, shows that slack ratio is a stronger structural predictor than T-depth for stall and inversion risk, while Delta_max is the strongest predictor of slowdown. Across 4,904 instances, the lower bound shows zero violations, with 88.9% of cases within one cycle. These results highlight the importance of explicitly modeling delivery constraints in fault-tolerant quantum compilation.