What becomes of JWST/NIRCam-selected high-redshift massive galaxies?

Early JWST/NIRCam surveys revealed a puzzling population of high-redshift massive galaxy candidates largely absent from previous rest-frame UV surveys. Spectroscopic follow-up has both confirmed and contested these candidates, whose potential overabundance may challenge traditional models of galaxy formation. In this study we evaluate the reliability of the photometric selections used to identify these candidates in observational data by applying them to galaxies in the TNG300 simulation with synthetic dust-attenuated photometry. Among the five observational selection criteria considered, we find that the selection presented by P\'erez-Gonz\'alez et al. is the most reliable and inclusive. Nevertheless, only 1 of the 18 galaxies at $z\sim5$ with $M_{\star} \geq 10^{11}~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ in the simulation satisfies this selection; the remaining 17 galaxies are on average $\sim0.5$ mag bluer than the color selection under the adopted dust model. We construct an improved JWST/NIRCam color-magnitude selection that provides a more complete census of massive galaxies at $z\sim5$ in TNG300 while excluding dusty, low-mass galaxies identified by criteria from the observational literature. We investigate the descendants of the most massive NIRCam-selected galaxies at $z=7,~4,$ and $2$ in TNG300, finding that they rarely evolve into the most massive galaxies by $z=0$. In general only the high-redshift massive galaxies that undergo substantial late-time ($z\lesssim0.2$) merger-driven growth become the most massive galaxies in the Universe today. Together these results suggest that current observational JWST/NIRCam selections are not identifying the most massive high-redshift galaxies, and caution against interpreting high-redshift massive galaxies as direct progenitors of the most massive galaxies at $z=0$.