Weak Evolution of Cosmic Atomic Hydrogen over the Past 4.5 Billion Years
Abstract
The cosmic star formation rate density (CSFRD) has declined sharply toward the present day, but the roles of the atomic and molecular gas reservoirs remain uncertain. We measure the cosmic HI density, , over by combining HI spectra from the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope with optical spectroscopy from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument for million galaxies across . We measure a raw decrease in by a factor of over the past 4.5 Gyr. Even after applying the conservative systematic corrections from our forward model, the inferred decline is only -- still far weaker than the CSFRD decline (a factor of 2.46). The molecular gas density, in contrast, is known to evolve more closely with star formation. At fixed stellar mass, the average HI gas fraction evolves by less than 0.2 dex, showing that the weak evolution is present across the galaxy population. These quantitative differences rule out rapid depletion of galaxy HI as the primary driver of the late-time CSFRD decline, and provide a stringent benchmark for models of gas accretion, phase conversion and star-formation regulation.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2607.05326,
title = {Weak Evolution of Cosmic Atomic Hydrogen over the Past 4.5 Billion Years},
author = {Chuan-Peng Zhang and Hong Guo and Yizhou Gu and Amélie Saintonge and Xiaohu Yang and Dirk Scholte and Ming Zhu and Peng Jiang and Hu Zou and Manasvee Saraf and Wenlin Ma and Yirong Wang and Y. P. Jing and Zheng Zheng and Zhejie Ding and J. Aguilar and S. Ahlen and D. Bianchi and D. Brooks and T. Claybaugh and A. de la Macorra and P. Doel and E. Gaztañaga and G. Gutierrez and M. Ishak and R. Joyce and S. Juneau and R. Kehoe and D. Kirkby and A. Kremin and O. Lahav and C. Lamman and M. Landriau and L. Le Guillou and M. Manera and A. Meisner and R. Miquel and J. Moustakas and S. Nadathur and W. J. Percival and F. Prada and I. Pérez-Ràfols and G. Rossi and E. Sanchez and D. Schlegel and M. Schubnell and H. Seo and J. Silber and D. Sprayberry and G. Tarlé and B. A. Weaver and FASHI Collaboration},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.05326},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
Accepted in principle by Nature Astronomy. This is the authors' manuscript version