Uncertainty Propagation under Residual Disturbances: A Smart-Home Case Study

This paper presents a data-driven framework for uncertainty propagation under unmeasured or statistically unmodeled (unstructured) disturbances. We consider residual disturbances, which consolidate all unstructured disturbances into a single quantity that can be estimated from data. Under mild assumptions, the resulting stochastic predictor is causal and distributionally consistent, enabling efficient uncertainty quantification through polynomial chaos expansions and higher-order Chebyshev inequalities. The proposed method is validated using experimental data from a smart home in Norway.