Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model
Methodology
2020-12-22 v1 Econometrics
Applications
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to understand the extreme variability on the estimated reproduction ratio observed in practice. For expository purpose we consider a discrete time stochastic version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimators of . We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate by a Monte-Carlo study the width of confidence intervals on .
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2012.11542,
title = {Uncertainty on the Reproduction Ratio in the SIR Model},
author = {Sean Elliott and Christian Gourieroux},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.11542},
year = {2020}
}