Conventional bidding strategies for online display ad auction heavily relies on observed performance indicators such as clicks or conversions. A bidding strategy naively pursuing these easily observable metrics, however, fails to optimize the profitability of the advertisers. Rather, the bidding strategy that leads to the maximum revenue is a strategy pursuing the performance lift of showing ads to a specific user. Therefore, it is essential to predict the lift-effect of showing ads to each user on their target variables from observed log data. However, there is a difficulty in predicting the lift-effect, as the training data gathered by a past bidding strategy may have a strong bias towards the winning impressions. In this study, we develop Unbiased Lift-based Bidding System, which maximizes the advertisers' profit by accurately predicting the lift-effect from biased log data. Our system is the first to enable high-performing lift-based bidding strategy by theoretically alleviating the inherent bias in the log. Real-world, large-scale A/B testing successfully demonstrates the superiority and practicability of the proposed system.
@article{arxiv.2007.04002,
title = {Unbiased Lift-based Bidding System},
author = {Daisuke Moriwaki and Yuta Hayakawa and Isshu Munemasa and Yuta Saito and Akira Matsui},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2007.04002},
year = {2020}
}