English

Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2026-02-10 v1

Abstract

We report the identification of two previously unrecognized interstellar meteor candidates in the NASA CNEOS fireball database. Using the empirically calibrated low-discrepancy uncertainty model of Pe\~na-Asensio et al.\ (2025) for post-2018 CNEOS velocity accuracy (1σ\sigma: speed 0.55~km~s1^{-1}, right ascension 1.35^\circ, declination 0.84^\circ), we transform CNEOS velocity vectors to heliocentric orbits and assess interstellar candidacy via 10610^{6}-draw Monte Carlo simulations. Two post-2018 events have heliocentric speeds robustly exceeding the Solar System escape speed. CNEOS-22 (2022-07-28; 6.0^\circS, 86.9^\circW; eastern tropical Pacific) has vhel=46.98v_{\rm hel}=46.98~km~s1^{-1}, exceeding escape by Δ=5.18±0.60\Delta = 5.18 \pm 0.60~km~s1^{-1} (zΔ=8.7σz_{\Delta}=8.7\sigma), with interstellar speed v,=21.5v_{\infty,\odot}=21.5~km~s1^{-1}. CNEOS-25 (2025-02-12; 73.4^\circN, 49.3^\circE; Barents Sea) has vhel=45.63v_{\rm hel}=45.63~km~s1^{-1}, exceeding escape by Δ=3.22±0.58\Delta = 3.22 \pm 0.58~km~s1^{-1} (zΔ=5.5σz_{\Delta}=5.5\sigma), with v,=16.9v_{\infty,\odot}=16.9~km~s1^{-1}. For both events, none of 10610^{6} realizations yield a gravitationally bound orbit (pbound<3×106p_{\rm bound} < 3\times 10^{-6}). The adopted error model would need to underestimate the true uncertainties by factors of 5--9 for either candidate to be marginally bound.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.08956,
  title  = {Two Robust Interstellar Meteor Candidates in the Post-2018 CNEOS Fireball Database},
  author = {Richard Cloete and Abraham Loeb},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.08956},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Submitted for peer-review to APJ Letters

R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:28:26.248Z