English

Two measures of efficiency for the secretary problem with multiple items at each rank

Probability 2022-08-24 v3

Abstract

For 2kN2\le k\in\mathbb{N}, consider the following adaptation of the classical secretary problem. There are kk items at each of nn linearly ordered ranks. The knkn items are revealed, one item at a time, in a uniformly random order, to an observer whose objective is to select an item of highest rank. At each stage the observer only knows the relative ranks of the items that have arrived thus far, and must either select the current item, in which case the process terminates, or reject it and continue to the next item. For M{0,1,,kn1}M\in\{0,1,\cdots, kn-1\}, let S(n,k;M)\mathcal{S}(n,k;M) denote the strategy whereby one allows the first MM items to pass, and then selects the first later arriving item whose rank is \it either equal to or greater than\rm\ the highest rank of the first MM items (if such an item exists). Let WS(n,k;M)W_{\mathcal{S}(n,k;M)} denote the event that one selects an item of highest rank using strategy S(n,k;M)\mathcal{S}(n,k;M) and let Pn,k(WS(n,k;M))P_{n,k}(W_{\mathcal{S}(n,k;M)}) denote the corresponding probability. We obtain a formula for Pn,k(WS(n,k;M))P_{n,k}(W_{\mathcal{S}(n,k;M)}), and for limnPn,k(WS(n,k;Mn))\lim_{n\to\infty}P_{n,k}(W_{\mathcal{S}(n,k;M_n)}), when MncknM_n\sim ckn, with c(0,1)c\in(0,1). In the classical secretary problem, the asymptotically optimal strategy yields a probability of success of 1e0.368\frac1e\approx 0.368. For k=2k=2, the asymptotically optimal strategy yields yields a probability of success of about 0.701. For k=3k=3, the optimal probability is above 0.85, for k=7k=7, that probability exceeds 0.99, and for k12k\ge12, it is 1.000 to three decimal places. In the problem with multiple items at each rank, there is an additional measure of efficiency of a strategy besides the probability of selecting an item of highest rank; namely how quickly one selects an item of highest rank. We give a rather complete picture of this efficiency.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2204.01610,
  title  = {Two measures of efficiency for the secretary problem with multiple items at each rank},
  author = {Ross G. Pinsky},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.01610},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

The title has been amended a bit to reflect the considerable amount of new material that appears in this version over and above the previous version