The Tail of Late-forming Dwarf Galaxies in $\Lambda$CDM

We use a robust analytical model together with a high-resolution hydrodynamical cosmological simulation to demonstrate that in a $\Lambda$ cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) universe, a small fraction of dwarf galaxies inhabiting dark matter (DM) halos in the mass range $3\times 10^{9} \lesssim M_{200} / M_{\odot} \lesssim 10^{10}$ form unusually late ($z<3$) compared to the bulk population of galaxies. These galaxies originate from the interplay between the stochastic growth of DM halos and the existence of a time-dependent DM halo mass below which galaxies do not form. The formation epoch of the simulated late-forming galaxies traces remarkably well the time when their host DM halos first exceeded a nontrivial (but well-understood) time-dependent critical mass, thus making late-forming dwarfs attractive cosmological probes with constraining power over the past growth history of their host halos. The agreement between our model and the simulation results demonstrates that the population of simulated late-forming dwarfs is a robust cosmological outcome and largely independent of the specific galaxy formation model included in the simulations provided: (1) the universe underwent cosmic reionization before $z_{\rm re} \sim 8$; (2) star formation proceeds in gas that self-gravitates; and (3) galaxy formation is largely restricted to atomic-cooling halos before $z_{\rm re}$. The scarcity of massive late-forming dwarfs expected in $\Lambda$CDM implies that the great majority of bright, metal-poor, and actively star-forming dwarfs observed in our local universe--the most obvious candidates for these late-forming galaxies--cannot be undergoing their formation for the first time at the present day in a $\Lambda$CDM universe.